Warrior Met Coal Inc
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +2.86%.
Did HCC Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Warrior Met Coal turned in a sharply better-than-feared second quarter, posting earnings per share of $0.11 against a consensus estimate of negative $0.26, a beat of 141.57%, even as revenue fell 25.0% year-over-year to $297.52 million amid a bruising steelmaking coal market. The primary drag was a 30.1% decline in average net selling price to $130.01 per short ton, as the Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian benchmark tumbled 24% to $167.12, compressing margins across the board and pulling net income down to $5.61 million from $70.71 million a year ago. What cushioned the blow was disciplined cost management, with cash cost of sales falling 18% quarter-over-quarter to $101.17 per short ton, alongside the first commercial sales from the Blue Creek mine, which contributed 239 thousand short tons in the period. The company also pulled forward the Blue Creek longwall startup to early Q1 2026, and updated full-year coal sales guidance to 8.8 to 9.5 million short tons, a signal that production momentum is building even as macro headwinds from excess Chinese steel exports and ample spot supply persist.
- Average Platts Premium Low Vol FOB Australian index price declined 24% YoY to $167.12 per short ton
- Average net selling price decreased 30.1% YoY to $130.01 per short ton
- Cash cost of sales (FOB port) per short ton reduced 18% to $101.17 driven by variable cost structure, cost discipline, and Blue Creek's lower cost profile
- Sales volumes increased 6% YoY to 2.2 million short tons, driven by Blue Creek contributions
- Production volumes increased 6% YoY to 2.3 million short tons, including 348 thousand short tons from Blue Creek
- Higher sales mix of high-vol A steelmaking coal and lower price index relativity to premium low-vol
“Despite headwinds in the global steelmaking industry, Warrior delivered strong operational results, maintained positive cash margins, and generated positive operating cash flows. These outcomes reflect the strength of our cost discipline, the flexibility of our variable cost structure, and the resilience of our team in managing volatile market conditions. As we navigate challenging market dynamics driven by excess Chinese steel exports, global tariff uncertainties, seasonal demand softness, and ample spot supply, we remain focused on what we can control—protecting margins, preserving cash flow, and executing on our long-term growth strategy.”
Warrior Met Coal CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Warrior updated full-year 2025 guidance: coal sales of 8.8–9.5 million short tons, coal production of 8.3–9.1 million short tons, cash cost of sales (FOB port) of $110–$120 per short ton, sustaining capital expenditures of $90–$100 million, Blue Creek capital expenditures of $225–$250 million, Blue Creek mine development costs of $85–$100 million, depreciation and depletion of $185–$210 million, SG&A of $65–$75 million, interest expense of $10–$15 million, and interest income of $15–$20 million. Production and sales guidance includes approximately 1.0 million short tons of High Vol A steelmaking coal from Blue Creek continuous miner units, expected to be sold primarily in H2 2025. Blue Creek longwall startup is now anticipated ahead of schedule in early Q1 2026. Key risk factors include excess Chinese steel exports, global tariff uncertainties, seasonal demand softness, ample spot supply, planned longwall moves, new labor contract negotiations, and inflationary pressures.
HCC YoY Financials
HCC Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.