Warrior Met Coal Inc
Q3 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +1.90%.
Did HCC Beat Earnings? Q3 2025 Results
Warrior Met Coal delivered a standout third quarter, posting GAAP EPS of $0.70 per diluted share against a consensus estimate of negative $0.30, a beat of 333.33%, while revenue of $328.59 million held essentially flat year over year, rising just 0.3%. The headline driver was a record 2.4 million short tons of sales volume, up 27% from a year ago, which largely absorbed a painful 21% decline in average net selling prices to $136 per short ton as persistently weak global steelmaking coal markets weighed on realizations. A $13.75 million income tax benefit further lifted the bottom line. The more consequential development, however, was the commencement of longwall operations at the Blue Creek mine in October, eight months ahead of schedule, which prompted management to raise full-year 2025 production guidance by roughly 10% to 9.4 to 9.8 million short tons while lowering cash cost guidance to $105 to $110 per short ton. Shares responded sharply, surging more than 20% on investor confidence in the company's growth trajectory.
- Record quarterly sales volumes of 2.4 million short tons, a 27% increase year-over-year
- Blue Creek mine contributed 378 thousand short tons sold and 175 thousand short tons produced
- Cash cost of sales per short ton decreased 18% to $100.73 from $123.45 year-over-year
- Income tax benefit of $13.7 million on pre-tax income of $22.8 million due to depletion expense, gas well tax credits, and foreign-derived intangible income deduction
- Variable cost structure and disciplined cost control offset lower average selling prices
- Average net selling price declined 21% to $135.87 per short ton from $171.92 due to weaker steelmaking coal market conditions
“It is gratifying to see our detailed planning and laser-focused execution result in the successful startup of longwall operations at our transformational Blue Creek mine eight months ahead of schedule, while keeping the overall project on budget. This milestone reflects Warrior's unwavering commitment to operational excellence and highlights the exceptional teamwork and dedication of our employees. Their efforts have propelled us forward and enhanced our position for sustained growth and long-term success.”
Warrior Met Coal CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Warrior raised its full-year 2025 guidance by approximately 10% due to the accelerated startup of the Blue Creek longwall. Coal sales are now expected at 9.2–9.6 million short tons, coal production at 9.4–9.8 million short tons, and cash cost of sales (FOB port) was lowered to $105–$110 per short ton. Approximately 1.8 million short tons of high-vol A steelmaking coal from Blue Creek is included in production guidance, with about two-thirds expected to be sold in 2025. Capital expenditures for sustaining existing mines are guided at $90–$100 million, with Blue Creek project capex at $225–$250 million and mine development costs at $85–$100 million. Total Blue Creek project capital expenditures remain on budget at $995 million to $1.075 billion, with remaining amounts expected primarily by end of Q1 2026. Blue Creek longwall commissioning toward full production is expected to be completed in early 2026. Key risks to the outlook include global trade and tariff uncertainties, steelmaking coal and steel market conditions, HCC index pricing, planned longwall moves, labor contract negotiations, and inflationary pressures.
HCC YoY Financials
HCC Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.