Warrior Met Coal Inc
Q4 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −2.98%.
Did HCC Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Warrior Met Coal delivered a blowout fourth quarter, posting earnings of $0.44 per share and beating the $0.23 consensus estimate by 90.15%, as the ahead-of-schedule commissioning of its Blue Creek longwall mine reshaped the company's production and cost profile in a single stroke. Revenue climbed 29.1% year-over-year to $383.99 million, powered by record Q4 sales volumes of 2.9 million short tons, up 53% from the prior-year period, while cash cost per short ton fell 22% to $93.53, reflecting Blue Creek's lower-cost structure. The gains were partially offset by a 16% decline in average net selling prices to $130 per short ton, as weak global steel demand and elevated Chinese steel exports continued to weigh on metallurgical coal pricing, a headwind management expects to persist into 2026. Even so, investors are weighing the volume step-change favorably, with the company guiding 2026 coal sales of 12.5 to 13.5 million short tons and cash costs of $95 to $110 per short ton as Blue Creek enters its first full year of operations.
- Record quarterly sales volumes of 2.9 million short tons driven by Blue Creek contribution of 881 thousand short tons
- 22% reduction in cash cost of sales per short ton to $93.53 due to Blue Creek's lower cost structure and variable cost discipline
- 53% increase in Q4 sales volumes year-over-year
- 61% increase in Q4 production volumes year-over-year
- Average net selling price declined 16% to $129.60 per short ton due to weak global steel demand and lower index pricing
- Average index price for premium low-volatility coal was 22% lower year-over-year
“Our team's disciplined execution in the fourth quarter and throughout 2025 delivered exceptional progress at Blue Creek. We are poised for a significant expansion in scale in 2026 as the early start of the Blue Creek longwall operation is already driving higher production, improved cost performance and record quarterly sales volumes.”
Warrior Met Coal CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
Warrior expects 2026 to reflect a substantial step-change in production and sales volumes driven by Blue Creek operating for the full year and continued operational excellence at Mines No. 4 and 7. 2026 guidance: coal sales of 12.5-13.5 million short tons; coal production of 12.0-13.0 million short tons; cash cost of sales (FOB port) of $95-$110 per short ton; sustaining capital expenditures of $105-$115 million; Blue Creek project capital expenditures of $50-$75 million; depreciation and depletion of $225-$250 million; SG&A of $75-$85 million; interest expense of $20-$25 million; interest income of $3-$8 million. The company anticipates a continued challenging pricing environment given weak demand, record high Chinese steel exports, and ample global supply, particularly in the High Vol A quality tier. Total Blue Creek project capital expenditures are expected at $995 million to $1.075 billion, with remaining amounts primarily spent by end of Q1 2026. Key factors affecting 2026 include four planned longwall moves, HCC index pricing, global trade and tariff policies, and a new labor contract.
HCC YoY Financials
HCC Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.