Q1 25 EPS
$-0.19
BEAT +10.84%
Est. $-0.21
Q1 25 Revenue
$912.0M
MISS 1.42%
Est. $925.1M
vs S&P Since Q1 25
+118.6%
BEATING MARKET
ULCC +150.0% vs S&P +31.4%
Market Reaction
Did ULCC Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results
Frontier Group Holdings delivered a mixed first quarter, narrowing its losses beyond what Wall Street had expected even as revenue fell slightly short of forecasts. The ultra-low-cost carrier posted an adjusted loss of $0.19 per diluted share, beatin… Read more Frontier Group Holdings delivered a mixed first quarter, narrowing its losses beyond what Wall Street had expected even as revenue fell slightly short of forecasts. The ultra-low-cost carrier posted an adjusted loss of $0.19 per diluted share, beating the consensus estimate of $0.21 by 10.84%, while total revenue of $912.00 million grew 5.4% year-over-year but trailed analyst expectations by 1.42%. The shortfall was largely driven by a brutal March, when industry-wide fare discounting pressured yields and softer consumer demand weighed on the carrier's top line. A 13% decline in average fuel costs to $2.55 per gallon helped cushion the blow, partially offsetting an 8% rise in non-fuel unit costs tied to reduced aircraft utilization and higher station expenses. Looking ahead, Frontier guided Q2 adjusted loss per share of $0.23 to $0.37 and announced plans to cut an additional $300 million in spending while trimming capacity through year-end, positioning itself for a return to profitability in the second half of 2025.
Key Takeaways
- • 5% capacity growth in available seat miles drove 5% revenue growth year-over-year
- • 12% increase in enplanements and 2.2 percentage point higher load factor at 74.9%
- • Fuel cost per gallon decreased 13% to $2.55, partially offsetting cost pressures
- • CASM excluding fuel increased 8% due to reduced aircraft utilization, shorter stage length, higher station costs, and lower sale-leaseback gains
- • Softer travel demand in March led to industry-wide fare discounting, pressuring revenue below expectations
- • Economy bundle product providing competitive value positioning
ULCC YoY Financials
Q1 2025 vs Q1 2024, source: SEC Filings
ULCC Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“First quarter results reflect softer travel demand primarily during March, with current booking trends suggesting demand for May and early summer travel has now stabilized. The significant investments we've made in our revenue and network initiatives over the past year, combined with our industry leading cost advantage, position us to offer more low fares to more people in more places. One key example is our Economy bundle which we believe provides more relative value than other competing low fares.”
— Barry Biffle, Q1 2025 Earnings Press Release
ULCC Earnings Trends
ULCC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
ULCC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
ULCC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
ULCC Quarterly Results
7 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +71.90% | $997.0M | +2.41% |
| FY Full Year | — | $-0.60 | — | $3.72B | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $-0.37 | $-0.34 | +7.66% | $886.0M | -1.56% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $-0.28 | $-0.31 | -10.99% | $929.0M | -1.42% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $-0.21 | $-0.19 | +10.84% | $912.0M | -1.42% |
| Q4 24 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +82.68% | $1.00B | +1.57% |
| FY Full Year | — | $0.37 | — | $3.78B | — |