Q2 26 EPS
$-0.30
BEAT +16.94%
Est. $-0.36
Q2 26 Revenue
$992.0M
MISS 5.46%
Est. $1.05B
vs S&P Since Q2 26
+72.8%
BEATING MARKET
ULCC +74.3% vs S&P +1.5%
Market Reaction
Did ULCC Beat Earnings? Q2 2026 Results
Frontier Group Holdings delivered a mixed first quarter for fiscal 2026, posting an adjusted loss of $0.30 per share that cleared the $0.36 consensus estimate by 16.94%, even as reported revenue of $992.00 million fell 5.46% short of the $1.05 billio… Read more Frontier Group Holdings delivered a mixed first quarter for fiscal 2026, posting an adjusted loss of $0.30 per share that cleared the $0.36 consensus estimate by 16.94%, even as reported revenue of $992.00 million fell 5.46% short of the $1.05 billion analysts had expected, despite growing 8.8% year over year. The headline results were heavily distorted by two significant non-recurring charges, most notably a $139.00 million hit tied to the early termination of leases on 24 A320neo aircraft and a $73.00 million reserve stemming from a court ruling on TSA fee remittances, which together swelled the GAAP net loss to $272.00 million from just $43.00 million a year ago. Strip out those items, and adjusted revenue reached nearly $1.06 billion, up 17% on 1% lower capacity, with load factor climbing roughly 3.5 percentage points to 78.4%. Shares retreated on concerns that rising cost pressures could erode those revenue gains. Looking ahead, Frontier guided Q2 adjusted loss per share of $0.45 to $0.60, projecting RASM growth of over 20% as the airline navigates a fleet transition and fuel costs estimated at $4.25 per gallon.
Key Takeaways
- • Strong travel demand and moderating competitive capacity drove adjusted RASM up 17% year-over-year
- • Flown load factor improved approximately 3.5 percentage points to 78.4%
- • Fare revenue per passenger increased 21% to $53.93
- • Fuel efficiency advantage of over 40% versus other major U.S. carriers helped mitigate elevated fuel prices
- • Revenue management initiatives contributed to record adjusted RASM levels
ULCC Forward Guidance & Outlook
For Q2 2026, Frontier guides adjusted diluted loss per share of $(0.45) to $(0.60), with capacity growth of 6-8% year-over-year. RASM is expected to increase over 20% and RASM stage-length adjusted to 1,000 miles is expected to rise high-teens versus Q2 2025. Average fuel cost is estimated at $4.25 per gallon. The company expects $75-$100 million of additional Early Return Agreement charges in Q2. Total liquidity at end of Q2 is expected to be $900-$950 million. For full year 2026, pre-delivery deposits are expected to be reduced by $170-$210 million, and other capital expenditures (including capitalized heavy maintenance) are projected at $170-$220 million.
ULCC YoY Financials
Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025, source: SEC Filings
ULCC Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“Our ability to deliver strong top-line results and increase our liquidity despite a rapidly rising fuel cost environment validates our strategy and the resilience of our operating model. We remain focused on our four key strategic priorities centered around rightsizing the fleet, strengthening our cost discipline, improving operational reliability and driving customer loyalty, with significant progress achieved on these priorities during the quarter. By staying aligned with our framework and focusing on items we can control, we believe we are well positioned to navigate near-term volatility while emerging stronger as macro conditions normalize.”
— Jimmy Dempsey, Q2 2026 Earnings Press Release
ULCC Earnings Trends
ULCC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
ULCC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
ULCC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
ULCC Quarterly Results
7 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +71.90% | $997.0M | +2.41% |
| FY Full Year | — | $-0.60 | — | $3.72B | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $-0.37 | $-0.34 | +7.66% | $886.0M | -1.56% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $-0.28 | $-0.31 | -10.99% | $929.0M | -1.42% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $-0.21 | $-0.19 | +10.84% | $912.0M | -1.42% |
| Q4 24 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +82.68% | $1.00B | +1.57% |
| FY Full Year | — | $0.37 | — | $3.78B | — |