Q2 25 EPS
$-0.31
MISS 10.99%
Est. $-0.28
Q2 25 Revenue
$929.0M
MISS 1.42%
Est. $942.4M
vs S&P Since Q2 25
+94.6%
BEATING MARKET
ULCC +113.2% vs S&P +18.6%
Market Reaction
Did ULCC Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Frontier Group Holdings delivered a disappointing second quarter, missing on both the top and bottom lines as softening domestic travel demand and severe operational disruptions weighed heavily on results. The ultra-low-cost carrier posted a loss of … Read more Frontier Group Holdings delivered a disappointing second quarter, missing on both the top and bottom lines as softening domestic travel demand and severe operational disruptions weighed heavily on results. The ultra-low-cost carrier posted a loss of $0.31 per diluted share, falling short of the consensus estimate of $0.28 by 10.99%, while revenue slid 4.5% year-over-year to $929.00 million against expectations of $942.39 million. The quarter's primary culprit was a combination of weakened April travel demand and extensive weather and air traffic control delays in late May and June, which pressured RASM to 9.01 cents and pushed total operating expenses up 6% to $1.00 billion, resulting in an operating loss of $75.00 million versus operating income of $25.00 million a year ago. Shares fell roughly 12% in the wake of the report, though some investors viewed the pullback as a potential entry point. Looking ahead, management guided Q3 adjusted loss per share of $0.26 to $0.42, while projecting mid-to-high single-digit stage-adjusted RASM growth and a path toward profitability in 2026.
Key Takeaways
- • Disruption in domestic air travel demand in April that subsequently stabilized
- • Significant weather-related disruptions and extensive ATC ground delay programs in late May and June
- • 2% lower capacity with off-peak day-of-week reductions
- • 17% lower fuel cost per gallon at $2.36 vs $2.84 in Q2 2024
- • 13% reduction in average daily aircraft utilization from disciplined capacity deployment
- • Lower sale-leaseback gains from timing of aircraft and spare engine deliveries
- • Load factor improved 1.2 percentage points to 79.3%
- • 35% growth in other revenue
- • 19% increase in co-branded cardholder spending
ULCC YoY Financials
Q2 2025 vs Q2 2024, source: SEC Filings
ULCC Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“Our second quarter results were within our guidance range, overcoming significant weather and extensive air traffic control delays in late May and June. The domestic supply and demand balance is anticipated to improve sequentially over the next several months in Frontier markets, which, alongside our commercial initiatives, is expected to support mid-to-high single-digit RASM growth in the third quarter on a stage-adjusted basis and provide a solid foundation for profitability in 2026.”
— Barry Biffle, Q2 2025 Earnings Press Release
ULCC Earnings Trends
ULCC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
ULCC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
ULCC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
ULCC Quarterly Results
7 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +71.90% | $997.0M | +2.41% |
| FY Full Year | — | $-0.60 | — | $3.72B | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $-0.37 | $-0.34 | +7.66% | $886.0M | -1.56% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $-0.28 | $-0.31 | -10.99% | $929.0M | -1.42% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $-0.21 | $-0.19 | +10.84% | $912.0M | -1.42% |
| Q4 24 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +82.68% | $1.00B | +1.57% |
| FY Full Year | — | $0.37 | — | $3.78B | — |