Q4 25 EPS
$0.23
BEAT +71.90%
Est. $0.13
Q4 25 Revenue
$997.0M
BEAT +2.41%
Est. $973.6M
vs S&P Since Q4 25
+31.2%
BEATING MARKET
ULCC +40.5% vs S&P +9.3%
Full Year 2025 Results
FY 25 EPS
$-0.60
FY 25 Revenue
$3.72B
Market Reaction
Did ULCC Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
Frontier Group Holdings closed out Q4 2025 with a stronger-than-expected performance, posting earnings of $0.23 per diluted share against a consensus estimate of $0.13, a 71.90% beat, while revenue of $997.00 million edged past the $973.55 million es… Read more Frontier Group Holdings closed out Q4 2025 with a stronger-than-expected performance, posting earnings of $0.23 per diluted share against a consensus estimate of $0.13, a 71.90% beat, while revenue of $997.00 million edged past the $973.55 million estimate by 2.41%, even as total revenue slipped 0.5% from the year-ago quarter. The quarter's outperformance was driven by an improving supply-demand environment and revenue management initiatives, which helped absorb an estimated $30.00 million revenue headwind from the November U.S. Government shutdown, with pre-tax income margin ticking up to 5.2% from 5.1% a year earlier. The results arrived alongside a sweeping fleet restructuring plan, including early returns of 24 A320neo aircraft and deferred Airbus deliveries, targeting approximately $200.00 million in annual run-rate cost savings by 2027, yet shares fell sharply as investors weighed a full-year 2025 net loss of $137.00 million against those longer-dated promises. Looking ahead, Frontier guided Q1 2026 adjusted EPS of $(0.26) to $(0.44), with full-year 2026 adjusted EPS ranging from $(0.40) to $0.50 on capacity growth of approximately 10%.
Key Takeaways
- • More constructive supply-demand environment in Q4
- • Revenue management initiatives supporting above-guidance results
- • CASM declined 1% year-over-year to 9.67 cents driven by lower fuel costs and cost discipline
- • Adjusted CASM excluding fuel down 1% to 7.36 cents aided by sale-leaseback gains
- • Fare revenue per passenger increased 9% to $52.99 in Q4
- • Load factor improved 0.6 points to 78.9% in Q4
- • Average daily aircraft utilization declined 10% to 8.6 hours, pressuring unit costs
ULCC YoY Financials
Q4 2025 vs Q4 2024, source: SEC Filings
ULCC Revenue by Segment
With YoY comparisons, source: SEC Filings
“As the quarter progressed, we benefited from a more constructive supply-demand environment, which, combined with our revenue management initiatives, supported fourth quarter results that were above guidance, overcoming sector-wide impacts of an extended government shutdown.”
— Jimmy Dempsey, Q4 2025 Earnings Press Release
ULCC Earnings Trends
ULCC vs Market 30 Day Price Reactions
30-day stock return vs benchmark after each earnings
ULCC EPS Trend
Earnings per share: estimate vs actual
ULCC Revenue Trend
Quarterly revenue: estimate vs actual
ULCC Quarterly Results
7 quarters of earnings data
| Quarter | EPS Est. | EPS Act. | Surprise | Revenue | Rev. Surprise |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q1 26 BEAT | $-0.36 | $-0.30 | +16.94% | $992.0M | -5.46% |
| Q4 25 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +71.90% | $997.0M | +2.41% |
| FY Full Year | — | $-0.60 | — | $3.72B | — |
| Q3 25 BEAT | $-0.37 | $-0.34 | +7.66% | $886.0M | -1.56% |
| Q2 25 MISS | $-0.28 | $-0.31 | -10.99% | $929.0M | -1.42% |
| Q1 25 BEAT | $-0.21 | $-0.19 | +10.84% | $912.0M | -1.42% |
| Q4 24 BEAT FY | $0.13 | $0.23 | +82.68% | $1.00B | +1.57% |
| FY Full Year | — | $0.37 | — | $3.78B | — |