Upstart Holdings Inc
Q1 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +6.87%.
Did UPST Beat Earnings? Q1 2025 Results
Upstart delivered a notably strong first quarter, with revenue of $213.37 million rising 54.0% year over year and comfortably clearing the $201.26 million consensus, while adjusted EPS of $0.30 beat the $0.17 estimate by 75.85%, reflecting a dramatic operational turnaround from the loss-heavy results of a year ago. The clearest driver behind the outperformance was a sharp rebound in loan origination volumes, with the AI lending marketplace facilitating $2.13 billion in originations, up 102% from the prior-year quarter, as conversion rates improved to 19.1% from 14.0% and 92% of loans were processed with no human involvement. Adjusted EBITDA swung to a positive $42.58 million from negative $20.34 million, and the GAAP net loss narrowed to just $2.45 million from $64.60 million a year earlier. A Bank of America upgrade citing improved fundamentals added further market confidence around the print. Management raised its full-year revenue outlook to approximately $1.01 billion and expects GAAP net income to turn positive in the second half of 2025, with Q2 revenue guided at approximately $225 million.
- Transaction volume up 102% YoY to 240,706 loans with total originations exceeding $2.1 billion (up 89% YoY)
- Conversion rate improved to 19.1% from 14.0% in Q1 2024
- 92% of loans fully automated, up from 90% a year ago
- Platform and referral fees grew 45% YoY to $151 million
- Net interest income swung positive as fair value adjustments improved significantly
- Adjusted EBITDA margin improved to 20% from (16%) in Q1 2024
“With an unparalleled pace of innovation, we continue to raise the bar in AI-enabled lending. In this foundational aspect of our economy, AI is clearly living up to its promise of delivering a radically better product for consumers.”
Upstart CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For Q2 2025, Upstart expects revenue of approximately $225 million (revenue from fees ~$210 million, net interest income ~$15 million), contribution margin of approximately 55%, GAAP net loss of approximately ($10) million, adjusted net income of approximately $25 million, and adjusted EBITDA of approximately $37 million. For full-year 2025, the company now expects revenue of approximately $1.01 billion (revenue from fees ~$920 million, net interest income ~$90 million), adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 19%, and GAAP net income to be positive in the second half of the year and positive for the full calendar year.
UPST YoY Financials
UPST Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.