Upstart Holdings Inc
Q2 2025 Earnings
Market Reaction
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: +2.54%.
Did UPST Beat Earnings? Q2 2025 Results
Upstart delivered a strong second quarter, with the AI lending platform <a href="https://247wallst.com/investing/2025/08/05/live-will-upstart-smash-earnings-today/">posting results that turned heads</a> across both top and bottom lines. Revenue came in at $257.29 million, up 85% year over year and ahead of the $225.40 million consensus by 14.15%, while adjusted EPS of $0.36 beat the $0.25 estimate by 41.62%. The most compelling driver behind the numbers was a surge in loan originations, with 372,599 loans totaling over $2.82 billion processed in the quarter, up 154% year over year, as conversion rates climbed to 23.9% from 15.2% a year ago. The company also posted GAAP net income of $5.61 million, compared to a loss of $54.47 million in Q2 2024, with CEO Dave Girouard noting the swing to profitability arrived a quarter ahead of schedule. Despite the strong print, shares fell sharply after the report, with investors flagging the growth in loans held on the company's balance sheet. Looking ahead, Upstart guided Q3 revenue to approximately $280 million and raised its full-year outlook to roughly $1.05 billion, with a 20% adjusted EBITDA margin target.
- 102% YoY total revenue growth driven by 159% increase in loan origination volume
- Conversion rate improved to 23.9% from 15.2% in Q2 2024
- 92% of loans fully automated with no human intervention
- Total originations exceeded $2.8 billion, up 154% YoY
- Newer businesses (auto, HELOC, small-dollar relief loans) accelerated growth from Q1
- Contribution margin held flat at 58% despite rapid scaling
“A year ago, you saw the first signs that Upstart was returning to growth mode - and today you can see it in full bloom. In addition to achieving triple-digit revenue growth, we reached GAAP profitability a quarter sooner than expected and our newer businesses actually accelerated off their amazing growth in the first quarter.”
Upstart CEO, on the earnings call
Forward Guidance & Outlook
For Q3 2025, Upstart expects total revenue of approximately $280 million (revenue from fees ~$275 million, net interest income ~$5 million), contribution margin of approximately 58%, GAAP net income of approximately $9 million, adjusted net income of approximately $44 million, adjusted EBITDA of approximately $56 million, basic weighted-average share count of approximately 97 million, and diluted weighted-average share count of approximately 105 million. For full-year 2025, the company expects total revenue of approximately $1.055 billion (revenue from fees ~$990 million, net interest income ~$65 million), GAAP net income of approximately $35 million, and adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 20%.
UPST YoY Financials
UPST Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.