Upstart (UPST) Q4 2025 Earnings
How Did UPST Stock React to Q4 2025 Earnings?
S&P 500 over the same 30 days: −3.31%.
Did UPST Beat Earnings? Q4 2025 Results
No. Upstart reported Q4 2025 earnings of $0.17 a share on Feb 10, 2026, missing the $0.46 consensus estimate by 63.1%. Revenue was $296.1M against a $288.6M estimate.
Upstart closed out fiscal 2025 with a strong fourth quarter, posting earnings per share of $0.17 against a consensus estimate of $0.15, a beat of 13.33%, while revenue of $296.09 million topped expectations of $272.82 million by 8.53% and grew 30.8% year over year. The headline numbers were underpinned by an 86% surge in loan originations to 455,788 transactions in Q4, generating roughly $3.20 billion in origination volume, as the company's AI-driven conversion rate improved to 19.4% with 91% of loans fully automated. The quarter also marked a meaningful profitability inflection, with GAAP net income of $18.64 million compared to a net loss of $2.75 million a year ago, and full-year net income reaching $53.60 million versus a $128.58 million loss in FY 2024. Auto and home loan originations each grew approximately 5x in 2025, signaling product diversification well beyond personal loans. Looking ahead, Upstart guided for approximately $1.40 billion in total 2026 revenue and a 21% adjusted EBITDA margin, with a longer-term target of roughly 35% revenue CAGR through 2028.
- 86% YoY growth in Q4 loan originations to 455,788 transactions
- 52% YoY growth in Q4 origination dollars to approximately $3.2 billion
- Conversion rate improved to 19.4% from 18.0% in Q4 2024
- Adjusted EBITDA margin expanded to 22% from 18% in Q4 2024
- Revenue grew 64% for full year 2025 while headcount grew only 18%
“In 2025, we grew originations 86% and revenues 64% while growing headcount just 18% — a ratio any business would die for. And we re-established Upstart as a strongly profitable business.”
Upstart CEO, on the earnings call
What Was Upstart's Outlook in Q4 2025?
For full-year 2026, Upstart expects total revenue of approximately $1.4 billion, revenue from fees of approximately $1.3 billion, and an adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 21%. For the 2025-2028 period, the company is targeting a revenue compound annual growth rate of approximately 35% and a terminal adjusted EBITDA margin of approximately 25%. Beginning in 2026, Upstart will provide annual financial guidance only and discontinue quarterly guidance. The company also expects to continue reducing loans on its balance sheet.
UPST YoY Financials
| Metric | Q4 2025 | Q4 2024 | Year over year |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $296.1M | $226.4M | +30.8% |
| Operating Income | $18.9M | $2.1M | +815.5% |
| Net Income | $18.6M | $2.1M | +776.4% |
UPST Revenue by Segment
Figures from SEC filings and company reports. Not investment advice.