The storm will reach the East Coast as the holiday shopping season is at its very start, and a much less important holiday — Halloween occurs. The malls may not be as crowded, but people could shop later.
Car dealers will see less traffic, but car buyers usually take their time. Those people can, and probably will, shop later.
Some businesses may close for a day or two because of the storm. Can they make up the lost revenue? That depends on the type of business.
Home supply stores ought to get a small boost in sales. People will buy plywood and flashlights at Home Depot (NYSE: HD) and Lowe’s (NYSE: LOW). Supermarkets should see extra traffic, too. Residents in the area that the storm will hit ought to buy water and canned food. And there will be repair crews working all over after the storm.
If the storm is fierce enough, even the stock markets may shut for a day and banks may close. It is anyone’s guess how that will affect the financial services industry. The stock market does not lend much to GDP, and banks will reopen in a day or two.
The argument that the storm will undermine GDP growth is foolish, but that will not stop the debate about the economic outcome.
Douglas A. McIntyre
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