Xbox Live Challenging Cable Supremacy? (MSFT, AAPL, GOOG, CMCSA, TWC, VZ, CVC, SSNLF, LOGI)

Tomorrow’s launch of an upgrade to Xbox Live from Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) is the latest shot in the battle for control of US TV sets. The Redmond giant isn’t the only high-tech player on the scene either. Both Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) and Google Inc. (NASDAQ: GOOG) have interactive TV hardware available that has so far not had much of an impact on cable companies like Comcast Corp. (NASDAQ: CMCSA), Time Warner Cable Inc. (NYSE: TWC), or Cablevision Systems Corp. (NYSE: CVC). Is this time really going to be different?

The biggest problem with the cable companies’ set top boxes is the nearly impenetrable user interface. The new Xbox Live software completely changes that, replacing the hierarchical menus with a graphical interface that can accept voice, touch, and motion commands as well as commands from a smartphone or other handheld device. The idea is to make the TV interface as intuitive and easy-to-use as a smartphone.

Apple’s latest Apple TV offering lets users stream content from the iPhone to a TV set through its AirPlay feature. Google is working with Samsung Electronics (OTC: SSNLF) to integrate Google TV directly into a TV set. Users will still need a cable TV subscription to gain access to cable programming through the Xbox or other TV device.

One interesting thing about all this is that Microsoft, Apple, and Google are very likely to take over the distribution of content from cable companies like Comcast and Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ). Not having to design, build, and market a set top box with a modern interface is not a bad thing for the cable guys, who will still make money by requiring users to pay for the cable subscription. Customers, of course, will very likely have to pay a (modest) fee to Microsoft, Apple, or Google for the privilege of connecting to the TV through another device. Xbox Live, for example, requires a $5/month fee for its premium service which allows users to control the TV.

Another possibility is that the TV control software will be paid for by advertising. Xbox Live does include advertising, and although Google has not revealed what it plans to do with its software, the company could choose to offer the TV software on an ad-supported basis.

A second interesting thing about Microsoft’s announcement is that this is one area in which Microsoft could actually be leading both Apple and Google. The Xbox Live interface is consistent with the Windows Phone 8 interface and will be the same as the user interface on Windows 8 which is due in the second half of next year. Apple was first to integrate handheld smartphones and tablets with a TV, but the Microsoft offering is far more mature than Apple’s offering. Google got sidetracked on a failed try with Logitech International SA (NASDAQ: LOGI), but its TV deal with Samsung could change things around because Samsung also sells more Android-based phones than any other company. Integrating Android with a TV is natural extension, but Google and Samsung are getting a bit of a late start.

The Xbox Live announcement could usher in the next big thing or it could just be another swing and miss at the integration of computing devices and TV sets. This time does look like it will be different.

Paul Ausick