Tuesday could bring a 1,000 point drop on the Dow, especially if markets in Asia and Europe repeat their Monday performances tomorrow. China’s big Hang Seng index fell 5.5% to 23,818. The percentage drop in Shanghai was a bit less.
Europe markets have also been off over 5% most of the day with the German DAXX and French CAC 40 leading the way. Huge multinational Siemens (SI) has fallen as much as 7.3%. French financial services giant AXA (AXA) has been off almost 8%.
A 6% drop on the Dow tomorrow would be almost 750 points. If concerns over a US recession and the lack of real solutions in the Bush economic stimulation plan rattle the markets more Dow components like Citigroup (C), JP Morgan (JPM), and American Express (AXP) could be hit especially hard.
Bank of America (BAC) and Apple (AAPL) report tomorrow. If the market thinks those companies might report below consensus the shares could be pushed down early.
For the Dow to drop 1,000 points it would have to sell of 8%. On October 19, 1987 the index sold off over 22% and it lost 7% of its value in one trading day on both September 21, 2001 and April 14, 2000.
With the deep concerns with the market, it could happen again.
Douglas A. McIntyre