The agency says that “Growth in the Group of Seven countries is expected to be around 1½ per cent on an annualized basis in the second half of 2010” And, “Based on the most recent data, the OECD short-term forecasting models show that US GDP is expected to rise by 2.0% in the third quarter but then moderate to 1.2% in the fourth quarter of 2010.”
The analysis concludes that the recovery from the recession is no recovery at all. What the OECD does not do is suggest what might be done to reverse the problem. Like so many other think tanks and experts, it seems satisfied to throw up its hands and say that there is no reasonable way for growth to be restored
Most forecasts predict that the economy, both in the US and worldwide, will recover in 2011. That is the normal course of the recession and recovery cycle, so what should it not happen again? Perhaps because this recession is unlike others. Global debt and deficits are rising. Global employment is not.
The despair of these analyses is disheartening because they show that even experts are not willing to suggest a way out of the tunnel. They are only willing to say that they see the light… somewhere.
Douglas A . McIntyre
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