Why Apple’s Stock Price Will Look So Much Better After September

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Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) is still one of the most searched and most widely followed stocks in the world. That should be expected when you consider that it dominates much of the consumer electronics spending in the world, and when it also has a market cap larger than every other public company. 24/7 Wall St. wants to alert its readers that Apple stock may start to look better any day now, even if its stock price only stays static or falls marginally.

One thing that most retail investors and traders alike pay close attention to is the 52-week trading range. Apple’s stock may be down under $460 again, but the stock’s weakness is so apparent when you consider that the 52-week trading range is $385.10 to $705.07. Sure, the stock is up 20% from its 52-week lows. It is also down 35% from its 52-week high. That will not be the case for much longer.

Apple’s high of $705.07 is from back on September 21, 2012. That one-year time period will change in one week (Monday to Monday). Starting next Monday, the new adjusted 52-week high will be $695.12, which is only a difference of 1%. What you have to understand is that when things fall from grace they often fall at terminal velocity (or warp speed).

Apple’s 52-week high will be only about $650 by the second week of October 2013. In November, the 52-week high will drop to less than $600. By the start of 2014, Apple’s 52-week high, barring any major recovery rally, could be as low as $513.74. So if Apple is somehow trading static at just under $460 around the end of 2013, then a 52-week range of $385.10 to $513.74 is going to magically sound not so bad.

Investors who are stuck in the stock from $700 or so will feel no better. That being said, investors may be far less skeptical investing in a stock that only has to rise 10% to reach a 52-week high rather than one that would have to rise 53% to hit a new high, as is the case this week.

So, will this drive a boa load of new share buyers toward Apple? It is unlikely that investors will fall for such a simple market perception trick. On the flip-side, what we actually expect to occur is that it will make this stock appear to be less and less unattractive and less weak.

What Apple investors have to worry about currently is that Apple’s stock price has fallen enough since its dud of the most recent iPhone 5 refresh that its stock broke under the 200-day moving average ($465.55) and also under the 50-day moving average ($464.35). Those are both not good. But that is a different matter. We are focusing on the next few weeks rather than a shorter-term trading pattern.

The trick is that Apple has to still manage to grow its revenues and drive its earnings. Companies cannot rest on their laurels, even if it is the great Apple under the former Steve Jobs. Tim Cook still has to lead innovation and still has to keep Apple relevant at a time when the rest of the competitive landscape caught up to the company.