Investing Valuation Scores A New Analyst Sell Rating

Jon C. Ogg Inc. (NASDAQ: AMZN) is a stock which has been on fire. Jeff Bezos has been able to do no wrong, even when the company posts a loss or has an operating margin that is too small to even count. We saw numerous analysts upgrade price targets after last week’s earnings report, but now we have a very cautious research report that investors and possible investors may want to consider reading now that this great company is worth a whopping $165 billion or so in market capitalization.

Standpoint Research initiated with Sell rating on Monday. With shares trading around $362, the implied 2014 to 2015 price target is down at $280. Ronnie Moas at the firm sent us a note on this Sell rating and the long and short of the matter on is that there are concerns with consumer spending heading into 2014 and 2015. The report is growing more and more cautious and recommends hedging long discretionary spending names at this time.

Where this report gets interesting is in using a 15-times earnings multiple for the future valuation when things normalize. Amazon was called a company that is now mature. For that $360 price to be justified the earnings per share would have to reach $24 per share. That could take ten years, if at all, according to the Standpoint report. bulls may take issue here after the run that has been seen in this stock with a 44% gain since the start of May, but Moas calls it likely dead money at this point that could trade sideways for ten years. The risk-reward profile here a stock with 10% upside and 30% downside.

Amazon shares are down 1.5% at $358.05 in late-Monday trading, and the 52-week trading range is $218.18 to $368.40.