Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) generated a return of -5.79% in 2015, if you include the dividend yield. Still, it weighs heavily on the Dow with its $180.23 year-end share price. The consensus price target of $208.92 at the end of 2015 would imply upside of 17.36%, including its 1.44% yield. Goldman Sachs shares were down under $165.00 after the first seven trading days, and the consensus price target had drifted to just under $208. Goldman Sachs has the highest weighting of all 30 Dow stocks at almost 7%. That firm made its own projections for big banks in 2016, all with solid upside projections.
UnitedHealth Group Inc. (NYSE: UNH) rose over 18% in 2015, and its expected gain at the end of the year was 22.52%, including the 1.7% dividend yield. Its mean price target of $142.13 at the end 2015 was actually up marginally at $142.57 after the first seven days of trading in 2016. After UnitedHealth’s 2015 close of $117.64, it was down near $111.00 after seven trading sessions, but its weighting is roughly 4.6% of the entire Dow.
When you look at the existing 2015 year-end bull-bear scenarios on the large Dow stocks, some of these targets might actually seem silly. They were generated using the consensus analyst target prices from Thomson Reuters. On the bullish and bearish cases for 2016, the projected 2016 total returns were as follows:
- American Express Co. (NYSE: AXP) for an 18.00% expected total return.
- Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) for a 42.60% expected total return.
- Boeing Co. (NYSE: BA) could have clear skies for a 15.8% expected total return.
- Caterpillar Inc. (NYSE: CAT) for a 4.87% expected total return.
- Chevron Corp. (NYSE: CVX) for a 15.40% total return (really?).
- Cisco Systems Inc. (NASDAQ: CSCO) for a 15.87% expected total return.
- E.I. du Pont de Nemours and Co. (NYSE: DD), or DuPont, for an expected 9.64% total return.
- Exxon Mobil Corp. (NYSE: XOM) for a 10.90% expected total return.
- General Electric Co. (NYSE: GE) for 4.95% expected total return.
- Goldman Sachs Group Inc. (NYSE: GS) for an expected 17.36% total return.
- Home Depot Inc. (NYSE: HD) for an expected 8.40% total return.
- International Business Machines Corp. (NYSE: IBM) for an 11.94% expected total return.
- Intel Corp. (NASDAQ: INTC) for a 7.75% expected total return.
- Johnson & Johnson (NYSE: JNJ) for a 8.06% expected total return.
- JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE: JPM) for a 13.17% expected total return.
- 3M Co. (NYSE: MMM) for an 8.51% expected total return.
- McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) for a 3.46% expected total return.
- Merck & Co. Inc. (NYSE: MRK) for a 21.35% expected total return.
- Microsoft Corp. (NASDAQ: MSFT) for a 5.34% expected total return.
- Nike Inc. (NYSE: NKE) for an 18.15% expected total return.
- Pfizer Inc. (NYSE: PFE) for a 29.00% expected total return.
- United Technologies Corp. (NYSE: UTX) for a 15.57% expected total return.
- Verizon Communications Inc. (NYSE: VZ) for a 13.33% expected total return.
- Visa Inc. (NYSE: V) for a 12.22% expected total return.
- Walt Disney Co. (NYSE: DIS) for a 13.87% expected total return.
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