Investing

Earnings Previews: ESS Tech, Payoneer, Rivian, Toast 

Last month, Amazon began taking delivery of electric delivery vans. The e-commerce behemoth has ordered 100,000 of the vehicles for delivery by 2030. As the situation now stands, Rivian’s electric pickups will not be eligible for the $7,500 tax break in the Inflation Reduction Act for buyers of EVs. The company’s trucks are priced above the $80,000 ceiling. That is expected to change a few years down the road.

Of 16 analysts covering the stock, 11 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating and four more rate the shares at Hold. At a price of around $36.70 a share, the upside potential based on a median price target of $46.00 is 25.3%. At the high target of $108.00, the upside potential is 194%.

Analysts expect Rivian to report second-quarter sales of $337.96 million, up 256% sequentially. The company is expected to post an adjusted loss per share of $1.63, compared to a prior-quarter loss of $1.43. For the full 2022 fiscal year ending in December, analysts are forecasting an adjusted loss per share of $6.42 compared to a prior-year loss of $14.78 per share. Sales are forecast to reach $1.84 billion, up more than 3,200%.

Rivian is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. The enterprise value to sales multiple is 9.9 for 2022, dropping to 2.9 in 2023 and 1.5 in 2024. The stock’s post-IPO range is $19.25 to $179.47.

Toast

Since coming public in late September, Toast Inc. (NYSE: TOST) has seen its share price sink by nearly 64%. The company operates a cloud-based and digital technology platform for the U.S. and Irish restaurant industries. Since putting up its post-IPO low in mid-May, shares have added about 19%.

When Toast reported better-than-expected first-quarter results in May, it also raised full-year guidance. That probably accounts for the turnaround in the share-price direction. More growth this time around could give the shares an even bigger boost.

Of 16 brokerages covering the stock, 10 have a Buy or Strong Buy rating, and the rest rate the shares at Hold. At a share price of around $17.00, the implied gain based on a median price target of $21.50 is almost 20%. Based on the high price target of $27.00, the upside potential for the stock is about 46.5%.


Analysts expect the company to report first-quarter revenue of $647.62 million, up 21% sequentially. Analysts also expect an adjusted loss per share of $0.12, better than the prior quarter’s loss of $0.20. For the full 2022 fiscal year, Toast is currently expected to post a loss per share of $0.39, smaller than last year’s loss of $0.82 per share, on revenue of $2.54 billion, up 48.8%.

Toast is not expected to post a profit in 2022, 2023 or 2024. The enterprise value-to-sales multiple is expected to be 3.0 in 2022. Based on average estimated sales of $3.35 billion and $4.28 billion for 2023 and 2024, respectively, the multiple is 2.3 for 2023 and 1.8 for 2024. The stock’s 52-week trading range is $11.91 to $69.93. Toast does not pay a dividend.

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