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Rivian Shares Battered by Downgrade

downgrade
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Shares of small electric vehicle (EV) maker Rivian Automotive Inc. (NASDAQ: RIVN) have performed poorly recently, and a Wall Street analyst thinks that will only worsen. Piper Sandler’s Alexander Potter lowered his rating on Rivian to Hold from Buy and cut his $16 price target to $13. The stock trades below $11 now.

24/7 Wall St. Key Points:

EV stocks have dropped sharply recently, and Rivian shares are off 18% this year. While shares of industry leader Tesla Inc. (NASDAQ: TSLA) are down more, much of that decline has been attributed to the absence of CEO Elon Musk, who is working on restructuring the U.S. government.

Investors must guess if the downdraft in Tesla sales in the United States, China, and Europe will pull down the entire industry. Potential EV buyers still face several hurdles. One is charging time. However, BYD, the China EV giant, said it would cut charging time to five minutes. Range is still an issue, as is tire wear and cold weather charging.

Rivian’s Deep Problems

Rivian electric vehicle
Kevauto / Wikimedia Commons
The direction of the EV market cannot hide Rivian’s deep problems. In the first quarter of 2024, it said it produced 12,727 and delivered 14,183 vehicles. The company blamed a parts shortage for some of the shortfall. Next year, Rivian said it would deliver between 46,000 and 51,000 vehicles. However, it expects an adjusted EBITDA loss of $1.7 billion to $1.9 billion next year. That raises the issue of how far out profitability is and whether demand for its products and its cash base can get it to that point.

Rivian cannot hide that its revenue in the fourth quarter rose only from $1.3 billion in the first quarter to $1.7 billion. Its loss was $744 million, compared to $1.5 billion a year ago.

All its vehicles are expensive at a time when people are looking for lower-priced EVs. Its prices range from $75,900 for the R1S Dual Standard to $105,900 for the R1S Tri. There is no reason to believe there is more than a niche market for these.

Rivian Price Prediction and Forecast 2025-2030

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