Conference Call Notes
Live Blog Update #10 Published
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Aggressive Satellite Manufacturing Ramp
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8 Block II Bluebird satellites completed + 6 Block I already in orbit; targeting ~40 Block II equivalents assembled by early 2026.
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Manufacturing cadence goal: 6 satellites/month in 2025; over 400,000 sq. ft. manufacturing space, 1,200 employees.
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Launch Cadence & Coverage Goals
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5+ launches by end of Q1 2026; 45–60 satellites = continuous coverage in key markets; 90 satellites = global continuous coverage.
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Block II satellites have 3.5x size and 10x capacity vs. Block I, enabling fewer satellites for coverage compared to competitors.
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Commercial & Government Market Progress
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Agreements/understandings with 50+ MNO partners covering ~3B subscribers; U.S. launch partners include AT&T & Verizon.
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Government: 8 U.S. contracts (both communications & non-communications uses), multiple branches of armed forces testing service; aim to become programs of record (> $100M each).
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Spectrum Acquisition as a Strategic Moat
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Acquired 60 MHz global S-band spectrum rights via ITU priority; complements existing L-band and MNO low-band spectrum.
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Spectrum viewed as a key barrier to entry & revenue enhancer; goal is global country-by-country licensing.
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Capital Strength & Funding Runway
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Over $1.5B cash pro forma after July financing; confident funding suffices to reach 45–60 satellite level.
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Significant Q2 CapEx ($323M) driven by satellite materials procurement ahead of tariffs and early launch payment; expects lower CapEx in Q3.
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Key Quotes from Call:
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On Manufacturing Scale:
“We will have around 40 phase arrays built by early 2026… at a rate of 6 satellites per month.” — Abel Avellan
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On Market Differentiation:
“We need far fewer satellites to achieve our goal of connecting the unconnected… 45–60 for continuous coverage versus tens of thousands for other systems.” — Abel Avellan
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On Funding Runway:
“We are fully funded now to reach the 45–60 satellite level.” — Andrew Johnson
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On Government TAM:
“Program of record opportunities in this sector tend to be north of $100M or several hundred million dollars.” — Scott Wisniewski
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On Spectrum Strategy:
“Premium spectrum is both limited and valuable… combining MNO low-band with our own spectrum creates a durable competitive advantage.” — Abel Avellan
All Updates from Live Coverage
Live
AST’s conference call starts now. It’s a good day to own the stock, as shares are up 7.4% after hours as of 5 p.m. ET.
Live
AST’s earnings slides were finally posted; you can find them here.
The company will be hosting its conference call soon.
The webcast is here if you want to listen.
If you leave this page open we’ll post our thoughts and a summary of the call once it’s over. All you have to do is leave this page open and a new post will appear automatically when AST’s call concludes.
Live
We don’t like to call companies out – but AST’s earnings information has been out for over 20 minutes and here’s what we’re seeing on the company’s investor relations website.
The company’s 8-K is filed, but this is lacking. Your company is owned largely by retail investors and you’re giving them worse access to information than institutions. We follow hundreds of companies each earnings season and AST is near the bottom when it comes to the responsiveness of their investor relations site.
Live
You might be surprised to see AST up 7% when they missed so badly on earnings. As we reported earlier what Wall St expected earlier:
- Revenue: $6.02 million
- EPS (Normalized): -$0.08
The company came in with revenue about 5X less than that, or $1.156 million.
However, with a largely pre-revenue stock like AST, all focus is on guidance, or what the company expects in the future. In that respect, the guidance AST has issued is largely positive. Hence, the reaction after-hours.
Live
“Continued expectations for revenue of $50.0 million to $75.0 million in the second half 2025, from government and commercial customers”
Shares are now up 3%.
Live
AST’s earnings aren’t on their investor relations site (that we can see), but their results are out.
The company is reporting revenue of $1.156 million, a net loss of $99.3 million, that translates to GAAP EPS of -$.41.
Shares are flat upon initial release.
Live
We expect ASTS to report at about 4:30 p.m. ET and will begin updating this live blog immediately.
As of 4:08 p.m. ET, their earnings haven’t been released.
Live
Shares of AST SpaceMobile are down 24% since July 24th.
Across the same time, Rocket Lab is down about 7%. Blacksky Technology is down 40% since July 17th. Clearly, there’s been money flowing out of space industry stocks after a furious June rally.
We’ll see if AST’s earnings have information that could stem the recent slide momentarily.
Live
| Quarter | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
| Q1 2025 (May 12, 2025) | +3.85% | +8.47% | +12.34% |
| Q4 2024 (Mar 4, 2025) | -4.62% | -2.19% | +5.47% |
| Q3 2024 (Nov 14, 2024) | -33.33% | -24.62% | +5.65% |
| Q2 2024 (Aug 14, 2024) | -131.82% | +5.25% | +3.12% |
ASTS’s stock has exploded 133% over 12 months on satellite tech hype, but post-earnings volatility is high—Q2 2024’s miss sparked a 131% EPS surprise downside and initial drop, while Q1 2025’s narrow miss yielded a 12% 14-day gain. With revenue expected to surge, focus on launch execution and funding could stabilize sentiment, though regulatory risks persist.
Joel South covers large-cap stocks, dividend investing, and major market trends, with a focus on earnings analysis, valuation, and turning complex data into actionable insights for investors.
He brings more than 15 years of experience as an investor and financial journalist, including 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he served as an investment analyst, Bureau Chief, and later led the Fool.com investing news desk. He has also co-hosted an investing podcast and appeared across TV and radio discussing market trends.
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