| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | +2.92% | –8.00% | –4.75% | –2.60% |
| Q1 2025 | +20.21% | +5.00% | +6.50% | +8.10% |
| Q4 2024 | +8.29% | +2.30% | +3.60% | +4.90% |
| Q3 2024 | +7.08% | +2.70% | +4.30% | +5.20% |
On average, the stock gained 2.9% after earnings over the past 4 quarters.
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Texas Instruments conference call is next, starting at 4:30 pm ET. The stock is down 6.63% heading into the call.
Topline re-accelerated: 14% YoY with growth across all end markets (broader than Q2).
EPS included a new $0.10 reduction not contemplated in original guidance (dragging the headline).
Q4 outlook reset below Street on both revenue and EPS; sets a more conservative near-term bar.
Cash dynamics improved: TTM FCF 65% and cash returned $6.6B despite heavy TTM CapEx $4.8B.
Segment breadth: Analog 16%, Embedded 9%, Other 11% — confirms recovery breadth.
| KPI (Q3) | Actual | YoY | Quick Thesis Check |
|---|---|---|---|
| Analog revenue | $3.73B | +16% | Core TI engine re-accelerating; supports multi-year share/300mm thesis. |
| Embedded Processing revenue | $709M | +9% | Early-cycle lift; auto/industrial recovery still staggered. |
| Operating margin | ~35% | +~120 bps vs. rev* | Solid incrementals despite cost headwinds. (*Derived from $1.663B / $4.742B.) |
| TTM Free Cash Flow | $2.42B (+65%) | — | FCF inflecting as fabs scale; supports dividends/buybacks through cycle. |
| Cash returned (TTM) | $6.56B (Div $4.95B, Buybacks $1.61B) | +26% | Capital return remains a priority alongside $4.8B TTM CapEx. |
TI’s cycle playbook is intact (Analog 300mm cost advantage plus disciplined returns). Near-term, lower Q4 guide and EPS headwinds cap multiple expansion, but broad-based demand FCF rebuild support the long game.
| Guide Item | Company Guide | Street Pre | Flag |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.22B – $4.58B | ~$4.64B | 📉 Lowered |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.13 – $1.39 | ~$1.49 | 📉 Lowered |
The range brackets a softer top-line and embeds cost/one-offs ($0.10 EPS reduction) that weren’t in prior guidance — resetting near-term margin/earnings power.
Revenue increased 7% sequentially and 14% from the same quarter a year ago with growth across all end markets. … TI’s fourth quarter outlook is for revenue $4.22B–$4.58B and EPS $1.13–$1.39. — Haviv Ilan, CEO
Confirms cyclical recovery breadth in Q3, but the Q4 outlook signals a measured pace into 2026 as customers manage inventories and as depreciation/tariffs and the $0.10 item weigh on EPS.
The release is out and the stock is down 3.5% right after the market closed.
| Metric | Actual | Estimate (Pre-Earnings) | YoY | Beat/Miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $4.74 B | $4.64 B | +14 % | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (GAAP) | $1.48 | $1.49 | +1 % | ❌ Miss (by $0.01) |
| Q4 Guidance (EPS) | $1.13 – $1.39 | Street ≈ $1.49 | 📉 Lowered | |
| Q4 Guidance (Revenue) | $4.22 – $4.58 B | Street ≈ $4.64 B | 📉 Lowered |
We expect Texas Instruments earnings to drop almost immediately after the closing bell. So we’re just about 5 minutes away from seeing how investors react to Q3 earnings.
As a reminder, this blog will continue updating the moment earnings hit.
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