Axon (NASDAQ: AXON | AXON Price Prediction) has had a turbulent 2025. The stock is flat year to date, down 0.02%, but recent momentum tells a different story. Over the past month, AXON surged nearly 12%, climbing from around $531 to current levels near $594. That sharp recovery has investors wondering whether the public safety technology leader can push to $900 in 2026.
Wall Street Expects Strong Upside in 2026
Analysts are overwhelmingly bullish on Axon. The average Wall Street price target sits at $820, implying 38% upside. Out of 19 analysts covering the stock, 17 rate it a Buy or Strong Buy, with 2 Hold ratings and zero Sells.
The optimism is grounded in strong fundamentals. Revenue grew 30.6% year over year in the most recent quarter, and analysts expect that momentum to continue. The Software & Services segment, which generates recurring revenue from cloud-based evidence management and AI analytics, grew 39.6% in the first nine months of 2025. That high-margin business is driving margin expansion and improving profitability. Management raised full-year 2025 revenue guidance to reflect approximately 31% growth, signaling confidence despite a Q3 earnings miss.
Recent contract wins reinforce the growth story. In December, Axon secured deals worth nearly $25 million with police departments in Rialto, California ($14.3 million) and Kennewick, Washington ($10.6 million) for AI-powered body cameras and cloud services.
The Math Behind $900 Per Share
At $594, Axon trades at 76x forward earnings based on 2026 estimates. If shares hit $900, the stock would trade at roughly 115x forward earnings. That’s expensive, but the company is growing revenue at 31% annually and software revenue at nearly 40%. For a business transitioning to a recurring revenue model with expanding margins, premium multiples are justified.
Compare that to the S&P 500’s forward P/E of around 22x. Axon commands a significant premium, but so do other high-growth software businesses. Wall Street’s forward P/E compression from 189x trailing to 76x forward suggests analysts expect earnings to more than double. If Axon continues beating estimates as it has in 7 of the past 8 quarters, actual results could exceed forecasts and drive multiple expansion.
Catalysts That Could Push Axon to $900
Several factors could drive Axon to $900 in 2026. First, the company has a proven track record of beating earnings expectations. Recent surprises include a 45.2% beat in Q2 2025 and a 48.2% beat in Q4 2024. If that pattern continues, actual earnings will come in well above consensus, potentially justifying a higher valuation.
Second, Axon is strengthening its balance sheet. The company announced it will redeem its 0.50% convertible notes due 2027 in February 2026, simplifying its capital structure and signaling financial strength. Third, if the Nasdaq continues its strong performance into 2026, high-growth names like Axon will benefit from multiple expansion.
The Bottom Line on $900
Hitting $900 would require Axon to gain 52% in 2026. That’s ambitious, but the company has delivered strong returns in recent years. Wall Street is already forecasting 38% upside, and with software revenue growing at 40%, margin expansion underway, and a strong contract pipeline, $900 is within reach. Returns at this level shouldn’t be expected every year, but we’ve outlined the blueprint for how Axon could see outsized gains in 2026.
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