The race to achieve artificial general intelligence (AGI) is on, and the race might be closer than investors realize. Of course, it’s up for debate as to how long it’ll take for true AGI to be achieved.
Some of the bigger bulls think it could happen in as little as a few years, while others think it might have to wait until the 2030s. Others think the breakthrough could be decades away, while some pundits, including Yann LeCun, think that “general” intelligence is more of an “illusion” than anything. Whether large language models (LLMs) are the key to AGI, or whether a jump to world models will be needed, it’s clear that it’s going to take more than just scaling up to reach the ambitious feat.
Regardless of the timeline of what kind of research and capital expenditure bumps it’ll take to get there, investors might wish to spread their bets across a broad range of names because once the milestone is achieved, the first-mover could have a significant advantage over the rest of the pack, who will surely enter some sort of “code red” to catch up or run the risk of staying behind in the race, potentially for good.
Of course, some of the most enticing frontier AI leaders aren’t yet public. OpenAI and Anthropic lead the list, as they look to potentially go public at some point over the next few years.
In any case, here are a pair of publicly-traded names that seem to be leading the pack:
Alphabet
When it comes to achieving AGI, I do think Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOGL | GOOGL Price Prediction) stands out as the player that comes closest. With Gemini 3.0, it seems to be ahead of the pack in large language models (LLMs). Even Salesforce (NYSE:CRM) CEO Marc Benioff sounded blown away by the technology.
At the very least, Gemini convinced the man to upgrade from ChatGPT. And as Google continues to advance its model, my guess is that there’s a good chance that the juggernaut could expand upon its lead.
With some profoundly deep pockets, TPUs (tensor processing units) that reduce dependence on third-party GPUs, a trove of multimodal data that’s invaluable for training world models, and a deep roster of some very talented AI researchers (led by Google DeepMind’s legendary AI researcher Demis Hassabis), it feels like Google has all bases covered as it races ahead.
If size and agility are advantages in the AI race, Alphabet has to stand out as top dog as the race to AGI moves on.
Microsoft
Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT) is another heavyweight Mag Seven member that also has a good shot to benefit from the rise of AGI, with OpenAI, the horse it’s betting on. Undoubtedly, Microsoft might be a minority shareholder (27%) in OpenAI, but Sam Altman’s firm is a key pillar of the enterprise giant’s growth strategy.
Of course, OpenAI has been making headlines for its steep financial losses, with some projecting the firm could run out of cash by the middle of next year. And while there’s a real risk for OpenAI, I do think there are levers to pull to drive revenue. Whether we’re talking about running ads (that’s already in the cards) or launching new AI applications, I don’t think it’s yet time to hit the panic button.
Indeed, Microsoft could always step up in a bailout kind of scenario if the absolute worst happens or, at the very least, provide some compute credit to help smooth the bumps in the road. While OpenAI and its adjacent plays, like Microsoft, are down, I wouldn’t count them out of the AGI race, especially since aggression (even at the cost of financial health) might be the key to getting to AGI first.
Either way, Microsoft seems poised to land much of the upside with less downside with its partial stake, a seat at the table, and distribution rights. In my view, the deal is a high-risk, higher-upside kind of proposition for the enterprise behemoth.
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