Live Analysis: Will Lam Research Beat Q2 Earnings?

Lam Research’s conference call begin in a few minutes.

You can register to join here.

Overall, Lam Research is estimating the wafer fabrication equipment industry will grow from $110 billion to $135 billion in 2026.

In the company’s earnings presentation, they highlighted the growth of advanced packaging, which is expected to growth more than 40% in 2026.

The big news beyond Lam Research’s earnings is that Meta’s earnings release tonight forecasted capital expenditures between $115 billion to $135 billion in 2026.

That’s probably bigger news than Lam Research’s earnings, because it shows how much growth is still to come in 2026. That should be great news across the entire semiconductor equipment industry.

Lam Research has guided to revenue of $5.70 billion next quarter with EPS of $1.35.

That’s a big beat on the EPS side. Wall Street expected $1.20.

Wall Street was also expecting $5.24 on the revenue side.

So, it’s very strong guidance but Lam Research is also priced for significant outperformance, so you’re not seeing shares react in a large way after hours.

LRCX | Lam Research Corporation Q1’26 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $1.27 (Est. $1.16) [✅]; UP +1% YoY
• Revenue: $5.34B; UP +22% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 49.7% (Est. 49.0%) [✅]; DOWN -90 bps YoY
• Net Income: $1.60B; UP +34% YoY

Q1’26 Outlook:

• Revenue: $5.70B ±$300 Million [✅]
  • Guidance reflects continued demand for advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment.
  • Expectations are driven by the ongoing transition to smaller, more complex devices and packages.

Q1 Segment Performance:

• Systems Revenue: $3.36B; DOWN -5% YoY
• Customer Support-Related Revenue: $1.99B; UP +13% YoY

Other Key Q1 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $1.83B; DOWN -2% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $827M; DOWN -1% YoY
• R&D Expenses: $573M; UP +16% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $1.48B; UP +99% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 13.2% (vs. 15.5% YoY)
• Cash Dividend Declared: $0.26 per share

CEO Commentary:

• Tim Archer: “Lam delivered another strong quarter to cap a record year. Entering 2026, our expanding product and services portfolio is enabling the market’s transition to smaller, more complex three-dimensional devices and packages. With AI accelerating, we are ramping execution velocity across the company to support our customers’ growth and realize our vision for multi-year outperformance.”

Lam Research shares are now up 2%, we’re digging into the earnings and will post more updates momentarily.

Lam Research just delivered EPS of $1.27 versus expectations of $1.16.

Revenue of $5.34 also topped expectations.

Shares are initially up marginally.

We expect Lam Research earnings to hit newswires at about 4:05 p.m. ET.

Once the company’s earnings are announced, we’ll begin updating this live blog with news and analysis.

Shares of Lam are up marginally in late trading.

ASML was up big in premarket trading this morning, but shares have fallen throughout the trading day. As of 1:35 p.m. ET, ASML is down about 2.6%.

That might be an unexpected response since the company reported incredible bookings growth that far exceeded Wall Street’s expectations, but ASML shares have also been on a furious rally recently.

As Intel investors recently discovered, stocks that have seen huge recent gains heading into earnings can be punished harshly for any perceived weakness.

In Lam Research’s case, the stock is up 30% year-to-date and 218% across the past year. That means it will need excellent earnings tonight, both in terms of recent performance and management commentary looking at the future.

Recent developments in the memory space point to more capital expenditures, which is very positive for Lam Research. Wall Street will certainly be closely parsing any commentary on future demand as shares are now priced at historically high levels.