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Western Digital (NASDAQ: WDC | WDC Price Prediction) reports fiscal second quarter 2026 results today after the bell. After a 111% earnings beat last quarter and a stock price that’s surged 490% over the past year, this report will test whether the storage recovery story still has legs.
The Setup: Momentum Meets Reality
Last quarter delivered the kind of beat that resets expectations. Western Digital reported $3.07 in adjusted EPS against a $1.45 estimate, nearly doubling consensus on the back of improving data center demand and better pricing. Adjusted earnings didn’t show quite as big a beat at $1.78, but that was still way ahead of analyst estimates of $1.58.
Revenue hit $2.82 billion, up 23% year-over-year, with gross margins expanding to 43.5%.
Since then, the stock has added another 62% year-to-date, closing at $279.70 and briefly touching an all-time high of $284. That’s a remarkable run for a company that was losing money just two years ago. The question now is whether fundamentals can support the valuation or if we’re pricing in perfection.
Competitor Seagate just posted a strong quarter with record results driven by AI data center demand and production ramps of HAMR-based storage products. Western Digital shares rallied 12% on that news, suggesting the market believes WDC is positioned similarly. The storage industry has consolidated to essentially three players, creating pricing power that didn’t exist during the brutal 2023-2024 downturn.
The Numbers to Watch
| Metric |
Consensus Estimate |
YoY Growth |
| Q2 FY2026 Adjusted EPS |
$1.93 |
+9% vs. Q2 FY2025 actual |
| Q2 FY2026 Revenue |
~$2.935B |
-31.5% |
| Full Year FY2026 EPS |
$7.90 |
60% |
| Full Year FY2026 Revenue |
TBD |
25% |
As a reminder, Western Digital spun off SanDisk last February, so year-over-year earnings aren’t very helpful, especially on revenue.
What I’m Watching
I’ll be focused on three things: margins, inventory, and guidance tone.
Gross margins hit 43.9% last quarter, the highest in recent memory. That’s the real story here. Western Digital has pricing power again because the industry rationalized capacity and AI workloads need massive amounts of nearline storage. If margins hold or expand, that validates the thesis that this isn’t just a cyclical recovery but a structural improvement.
Inventory management will tell us about demand visibility. Western Digital worked down inventory from $3.7 billion in fiscal 2023 to $1.3 billion by mid-2025. That normalization drove significant cash flow improvement.
Management’s tone on AI infrastructure spending matters more than the quarterly print. Data center customers are making multi-year capacity commitments. If Western Digital can articulate how much of its backlog is tied to these longer-term contracts versus spot demand, that changes the risk profile entirely. Seagate’s management sounded confident about sustained AI-driven demand. Western Digital needs to match that conviction.
The HAMR technology discussion will also be critical. Heat-assisted magnetic recording allows higher storage densities, giving Western Digital a competitive advantage in nearline drives. Production ramp updates and customer adoption commentary will signal whether the company can maintain its technology lead.
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