Prediction Markets Placing 90% Odds On AMD Beating Earnings Tonight

AMD’s conference call starts in 5 minutes. We’d be surprised if anything the company says changes the market’s reaction tonight, but these calls are always valuable.

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AMD reported that they’re once again receiving sales form China, which most Wall Street estimates likely didn’t have in their estimates. This could be part of the disappointment tonight.

That is to say, AMD’s beat is less about stellar business and more about China sales that Wall Street had excluded from their estimates.

AMD delivered a decisive Q4 beat tonight – EPS of $1.53 versus $1.32 estimated, revenue of $10.3 billion topping $9.65 billion consensus – yet shares fell 5% after hours. The culprit? Q1 guidance.

Management projects $9.8 billion revenue (±$300M) for Q1 2026, representing 32% year-over-year growth but a 5% sequential decline. While the midpoint exceeds Wall Street’s pre-report expectations, investors appear disappointed by the sequential pullback and modest growth rate relative to peers posting 40%+ gains this earnings season.

With analyst consensus at a $289 price target and a 37x forward P/E, the market priced in stronger momentum. Tonight proves guidance velocity matters more than backward-looking beats.

AMD shares bounced back slightly, but are now down about 5% again.

As we’ve noted, these earnings look pretty good to us. So, the reaction is surprising.

Data Center revenues and Client revenues beat Wall Street targets by a sizable amount.

Gross margins beat expectations.

Implied gross margins from next quarter’s guidance are down from Q4, but still beat targets.

Overall, there’s just not a lot of ‘weakness’ from this quarter’s report.

As we noted earlier, the reaction to this quarter is likely inflated expectations as AMD shares have gained 37% in the past six months.

Here’s what the growth rates look like by segment:

• Data Center +39%
•  Client +34%
•  Gaming +50%
• Embedded +3%

The client performance seems especially impressive considering challenges around memory pricing and growth rates Intel just reported.

AMD | Advanced Micro Devices Q4’25 Earnings Highlights:

• Adj. EPS: $1.53 (Est. $1.32) [✅]; [UP] +40% YoY
• Revenue: $10.3B [✅]; [UP] +34% YoY
• Adj. Gross Margin: 57%  [✅]; [UP] +3 bps YoY
• Net Income: $1.5B [✅]; [UP] +213% YoY
• Free Cash Flow: $2.1B; [UP] +90% YoY

Q1’26 Outlook:

• Revenue: $9.8B ±$300M (Est. N/A) [✅]
  • Includes approximately $100 million of AMD Instinct MI308 sales to China.
  • The mid-point of the revenue range represents year-over-year growth of approximately 32% and a sequential decline of approximately 5%.
  • Non-GAAP gross margin is expected to be approximately 55%.

Q4 Segment Performance:

• Data Center Segment Revenue: $5.4B [✅]; [UP] +39% YoY
• Client and Gaming Segment Revenue: $3.9B  [✅]; [UP] +37% YoY
• Embedded Segment Revenue: $950M [✅]; [UP] +3% YoY

Other Key Q4 Metrics:

• Adj. Operating Income: $2.9B [✅]; [UP] +41% YoY
• Adj. Operating Expenses: $3.0B [✅]; [UP] +42% YoY
• R&D Expenses: $2.3B [✅]; [UP] +36% YoY
• Effective Tax Rate: 22% (vs. 25% YoY)
• Cash, Cash Equivalents and Short-term Investments: $10.6B
• Total Assets: $76.9B
• Total Debt: $3.2B

CEO Commentary:

• Dr. Lisa Su: “2025 was a defining year for AMD, with record revenue and earnings driven by strong execution and broad-based demand for our high-performance and AI platforms. We are entering 2026 with strong momentum across our business, led by accelerating adoption of our high-performance EPYC and Ryzen CPUs and the rapid scaling of our data center AI franchise.”

CFO Commentary:

• Jean Hu: “Our record fourth quarter and full-year results demonstrate AMD’s ability to deliver profitable growth at scale. We achieved record non-GAAP operating income and free cash flow, while increasing our strategic investments to support long-term growth across our high-performance and adaptive computing product portfolio.”

Despite the earnings beat and guidance above Wall Street expectations, AMD shares are now down about 5%.

It’s a surprising reaction. We’ll continue digging into earnings to see what Wall Street doesn’t like.

Our early guess is that while guidance beat Wall Street’s targets, it could be disappointing given many of the outstanding growth rates other AI infrastructure companies have seen across this earnings season.

EPS of $1.53 versus expectations of $1.32.

Revenue of $10.27 billion versus estimates of $9.65 billion.

Guidance of $9.8 billion in revenue exceeds estimates for $9.37 billion next quarter.

Shares are initially down 1.5% despite the beat. 

Lumentum just reported earnings and their guidance for next quarter is an absolute blowout. Shares are up 11% despite having gained 416% across the past year headed into earnings.

Once again, we expect AMD to report at about 4:15 p.m. ET and will begin providing news and analysis when their earnings drop. 

We’re almost to the closing bell and AMD shares have rebounded from their lows at 2 p.m. ET. They’re down about 1.5% in late trading.

A couple of reminders before the company reports.

1. We expect AMD to report at 4:15 p.m. ET. Once their report hits newswires we’ll provide news and analysis that will appear on this live blog. All you have to do is stay on this page and new updates will appear automatically. 
2. If you want continuing updates on AMD, check out our AI Investor Podcast.  We cover the biggest stories in AI in one central place and will be covering AMD’s earnings in our next episode.

It’s an absolutely brutal day on Wall Street with the Nasdaq down about 2% in late trading amidst a rotation out of technology stocks.

AMD is down 1.6% as of 3:20 p.m. ET, but that’s actually pretty strong relative performance. NVIDIA is down 4.32% while Broadcom is down 5.8%.

It’s worth noting that Intel is also outperforming relative today, with shares up .5% in late trading.