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That wraps up our initial coverage of Intel’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!
The 25% top-line surge skewed sharply by segment:
Data Center and AI (DCAI) did the heavy lifting, delivering $6.26 billion at +59% YoY, a sharp acceleration from Q1’s +22% and Q3 2025’s -1%.
Client Computing Group added $8.88 billion (+13%) on the Panther Lake ramp, while Intel Foundry hit $5.76 billion (+31%) yet still bled ~$2.1 billion in quarterly operating losses.
Every segment beat the trajectory implied by prior guidance. DCAI’s $5.5B Polymarket threshold was cleared decisively, validating the AI-CPU thesis. Foundry topline strength helped to offset the segment’s cash burn as capex climbs to $20 billion.
The forward guidance is what turned tonight’s report from a beat into a re-rating event.
Management set Q3 revenue guidance at $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, above the $15.10 billion Street consensus even at the low end. Adjusted EPS guidance of $0.38 crushed the $0.27 consensus.
The bigger surprise: CFO David Zinsner lifted the 2026 capex plan from $18 billion to $20 billion, with 2027 spending expected to rise “meaningfully.” That signals customer commitments behind Intel 18A are firming, addressing the 47.5% backlog question prediction markets flagged pre-call.
Key assumptions: sustained DCAI momentum off Q1’s 22% YoY growth, Foundry ramp, and AI inference demand. With shares near $100.18, the raise validates the 341.57% one-year run.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) shares jumped 12% after clearing every line: revenue of $16.13 billion vs. $14.42 billion expected, EPS of $0.42 vs. $0.21, and Q3 revenue guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion against a $15.10 billion consensus.
The magnitude of the beat justifies enthusiasm, yet the reaction looks restrained compared to Q1 2026, when a similarly outsized surprise triggered a 23.6% day-of move.
Two factors may explain why this response was a bit smaller than Q1:
After a 341.57% one-year run, a 12% pop is still substantial for Intel.
With Q2 revenue of $16.13 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.42 crushing estimates, here is how the pre-earnings bear thesis holds up.
Bears will argue rising CapEx delays free cash flow and that insider selling near $118.28 signals caution.
Bulls counter with a 41.8% gross margin and a Q3 guidance well above consensus.
Intel just reported Q2 earnings, with shares initially jumping 5% following the report. Here are the key numbers:
Guidance:
Intel crushed expectations across revenue, earnings, margins, and forward guidance.
CFO David Zinsner also said the company is raising its 2026 capital-spending plan from $18 billion to $20 billion, with 2027 CapEx expected to increase “meaningfully.”
With the earnings release moments away, consensus sits at $0.2166 EPS on $14.45 billion in revenue. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is trading near $99.83 after a 6.89-point intraday swing, with sellers pressing lows into the close.
Options flow leans bullish at a 0.71 put-call ratio on Friday expiries, and insiders logged 47 net-buying transactions recently.
Wall Street expects Intel to report approximately $14.5 billion in Q2 revenue, representing roughly 12% year-over-year growth. That would mark a solid recovery, but it pales next to the growth rates expected from many AI-driven semiconductor peers.
Advanced Micro Devices and Marvell are expected to grow revenue by more than 40% this year, while Analog Devices and Taiwan Semiconductor are projected to expand by 30% to 40%.
Analysts expect Intel to report Q2 EPS of $0.22, marking a significant improvement from the loss recorded one year earlier. The company has beaten Wall Street’s EPS consensus in three of the past four quarters, suggesting another upside surprise is possible tonight.
Longer-term expectations remain less certain. Intel’s projected 2026 EPS has fallen from approximately $6 several years ago to just $1.11 today, while its 2027 estimate has dropped from above $4 to below $2.
Investors will be looking to see whether Intel’s latest margin recovery is durable rather than another turnaround that falls short of expectations.
Intel enters tonight’s Q2 earnings report trading at roughly 94 times forward earnings.
That makes Intel considerably more expensive than faster-growing semiconductor leaders such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Micron, which trade between roughly 13 and 33 times expected earnings.
The valuation reflects enormous confidence that Intel can restore its margins and accelerate growth. Anything short of a clean earnings beat and confident guidance could challenge that optimism.
With Intel stock hovering near $100.40 and a 341.57% one-year run, both sides have ammunition.
Tonight, investors are waiting for Intel’s guidance moreso than Q2 results. Consensus sits at $14.45 billion in revenue against management’s prior guide of $13.8 to $14.8 billion, and CFO David Zinsner has telegraphed that “supply will go up in the second quarter. It is going to go up every quarter now going forward.”
Management guides conservatively, then beats. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has strung together six consecutive quarters of exceeding expectations.
Bullish scenario: Q3 revenue above $14.8B, non-GAAP gross margin holding 40%+, DCAI growth accelerating past 22%, and foundry losses narrowing from Q1’s $2.4 billion.
Bearish scenario: Revenue guide below $14B, margin under 38%, or any hint of a 14A pause. With shares near $99.66, guidance moves this stock more than the beat itself.
This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Intel’s earnings.
Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Intel to release earnings shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.
Intel enters tonight’s Q2 earnings report with expectations running high after a blowout first quarter.
Management previously guided for revenue of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.20, while Polymarket traders currently assign a 94.5% probability that Intel beats the EPS consensus.
The bigger question is what comes next. Intel’s red-hot rally from the low $20s one year ago to just below $100 today leaves little room for disappointing guidance.
A confident Q3 outlook could validate enthusiasm surrounding the Intel 18A ramp, the foundry customer pipeline, and the government’s stake in the company. However, a soft forecast could quickly revive concerns about foundry profitability, capital-spending discipline, and Intel’s negative free cash flow.
Live coverage has ended. The full story is below.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) reports Q2 FY2026 at 4:00 PM ET after the bell today, with the earnings call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET. Shares trade around $100.98, up 178.1% year-to-date and 327.42% in the past year but down 27.19% over the past month.
Q1 delivered a sixth consecutive revenue beat. Revenue reached $13.577 billion, up 7.18% YoY and ahead of the $12.43 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 demolished the $0.0127 estimate.
Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41.0% from 39.2%. Data Center and AI revenue climbed 22% YoY to $5.052 billion, and Intel Foundry rose 16% to $5.421 billion. A $4.07 billion Mobileye impairment drove the GAAP net loss of -$3.728 billion. Shares peaked near $119.84 within 30 days before fading into today’s report.
| Metric | Q2 2026 Guide | Q1 2026 Actual | FY26 OpEx Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.8B to $14.8B | $13.577B | N/A |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.20 | $0.29 | N/A |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | ~39.0% | 41.0% | N/A |
| Non-GAAP OpEx | N/A | N/A | ~$16.5B |
Analysts’ estimates imply the business will see modest sequential margin compression and softer EPS compared to Q1, even at the high end of the revenue range. That reflects lower prior-quarter inventory tailwinds and early Intel 18A ramp costs weighing on the revenue mix.
Tonight, I’ll be watching Intel Foundry’s operating loss trajectory closely. Prior quarters ran at $2.51B, $2.3B, and $3.2B in losses through late FY25, so any narrowing could signal that Intel 18A is pulling through. Polymarket assigns 90.5% odds that Foundry revenue clears $5B, but only 65% for $5.5B.
DCAI cadence is another focal point. Management flagged double-digit sequential growth tied to supply, pricing, and utilization. Traders price 82.5% odds of exceeding $5.5B. Lip-Bu Tan’s positioning around agentic AI matters here. He told investors last quarter that “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic.”
I’ll also track any product and partnership updates, such as the NVIDIA DGX Rubin NVL8 Xeon 6-socket, the Google Xeon and custom IPU partnership, and Panther Lake OEM design momentum.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-Of Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +2,183.46% | +23.6% | +20.69% | +47.53% |
| Q4 2025 | +80.72% | -17.03% | +3.11% | +4.02% |
| Q3 2025 | +3,050.68% | +0.31% | +4.47% | -6.4% |
| Q2 2025 | -1,175.27% | -8.53% | -6.71% | +17.63% |
On average, shares moved +4.88% seven days after earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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