Live: Can Intel Continue Its Meteoric 327% Run With Q2 Earnings Tonight?

That wraps up our initial coverage of Intel’s Q2 results. Thank you for stopping by!

The 25% top-line surge skewed sharply by segment:

Data Center and AI (DCAI) did the heavy lifting, delivering $6.26 billion at +59% YoY, a sharp acceleration from Q1’s +22% and Q3 2025’s -1%.

Client Computing Group added $8.88 billion (+13%) on the Panther Lake ramp, while Intel Foundry hit $5.76 billion (+31%) yet still bled ~$2.1 billion in quarterly operating losses.

Every segment beat the trajectory implied by prior guidance. DCAI’s $5.5B Polymarket threshold was cleared decisively, validating the AI-CPU thesis. Foundry topline strength helped to offset the segment’s cash burn as capex climbs to $20 billion.

Guidance Bombshell: Intel Blows Past the Q3 Bar

The forward guidance is what turned tonight’s report from a beat into a re-rating event.

Management set Q3 revenue guidance at $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion, above the $15.10 billion Street consensus even at the low end. Adjusted EPS guidance of $0.38 crushed the $0.27 consensus.

The bigger surprise: CFO David Zinsner lifted the 2026 capex plan from $18 billion to $20 billion, with 2027 spending expected to rise “meaningfully.” That signals customer commitments behind Intel 18A are firming, addressing the 47.5% backlog question prediction markets flagged pre-call.

Key assumptions: sustained DCAI momentum off Q1’s 22% YoY growth, Foundry ramp, and AI inference demand. With shares near $100.18, the raise validates the 341.57% one-year run.

Does a 12% Pop Match This Beat?

Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) shares jumped 12% after clearing every line: revenue of $16.13 billion vs. $14.42 billion expected, EPS of $0.42 vs. $0.21, and Q3 revenue guidance of $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion against a $15.10 billion consensus.

The magnitude of the beat justifies enthusiasm, yet the reaction looks restrained compared to Q1 2026, when a similarly outsized surprise triggered a 23.6% day-of move.

Two factors may explain why this response was a bit smaller than Q1:

• Valuation near 94x forward earnings leaves less room for multiple expansion
• Shares already priced in a beat, with Polymarket at 99.95% odds pre-release.

After a 341.57% one-year run, a 12% pop is still substantial for Intel.

With Q2 revenue of $16.13 billion and adjusted EPS of $0.42 crushing estimates, here is how the pre-earnings bear thesis holds up.

1. Foundry losses: Top-line traction confirmed, yet segment profitability still unproven with CapEx rising to $20 billion.
2. AI/server share: Blunted. DCAI grew 22% YoY in Q1, aided by NVIDIA and Google partnerships.
3. Intel 18A execution: Busted. Panther Lake shipped on 18A across 200+ OEM designs.
4. GAAP losses/dilution: Validated. Q1 GAAP net loss was $3.73 billion.

Bears will argue rising CapEx delays free cash flow and that insider selling near $118.28 signals caution.

Bulls counter with a 41.8% gross margin and a Q3 guidance well above consensus.

Intel just reported Q2 earnings, with shares initially jumping 5% following the report. Here are the key numbers:

• Revenue: $16.13 billion vs. $14.42 billion expected
• Adjusted EPS: $0.42 vs. $0.21 expected
• Non-GAAP gross margin: 41.8% vs. 38.76% expected

Guidance:

• Q3 revenue: $15.8 billion to $16.8 billion vs. $15.10 billion expected
• Adjusted EPS: $0.38 vs. $0.27 expected

Intel crushed expectations across revenue, earnings, margins, and forward guidance.

CFO David Zinsner also said the company is raising its 2026 capital-spending plan from $18 billion to $20 billion, with 2027 CapEx expected to increase “meaningfully.”

Final Hour Positioning Into the 4 PM Bell

With the earnings release moments away, consensus sits at $0.2166 EPS on $14.45 billion in revenue. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) is trading near $99.83 after a 6.89-point intraday swing, with sellers pressing lows into the close.

KPI Thresholds That Will Move the Stock

• DCAI revenue: Polymarket assigns 82.5% odds above $5.5B; a print under $5.3B would rattle the AI-CPU thesis.
• Foundry revenue: 91.5% odds above $5.0B, with upside if 18A yields surprise.
• Non-GAAP gross margin: 40%–42% is the modal outcome at 43% probability.

Options flow leans bullish at a 0.71 put-call ratio on Friday expiries, and insiders logged 47 net-buying transactions recently.

Wall Street expects Intel to report approximately $14.5 billion in Q2 revenue, representing roughly 12% year-over-year growth. That would mark a solid recovery, but it pales next to the growth rates expected from many AI-driven semiconductor peers.

Advanced Micro Devices and Marvell are expected to grow revenue by more than 40% this year, while Analog Devices and Taiwan Semiconductor are projected to expand by 30% to 40%.

Analysts expect Intel to report Q2 EPS of $0.22, marking a significant improvement from the loss recorded one year earlier. The company has beaten Wall Street’s EPS consensus in three of the past four quarters, suggesting another upside surprise is possible tonight.

Longer-term expectations remain less certain. Intel’s projected 2026 EPS has fallen from approximately $6 several years ago to just $1.11 today, while its 2027 estimate has dropped from above $4 to below $2.

Investors will be looking to see whether Intel’s latest margin recovery is durable rather than another turnaround that falls short of expectations.

Intel enters tonight’s Q2 earnings report trading at roughly 94 times forward earnings.

That makes Intel considerably more expensive than faster-growing semiconductor leaders such as Nvidia, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, and Micron, which trade between roughly 13 and 33 times expected earnings.

The valuation reflects enormous confidence that Intel can restore its margins and accelerate growth. Anything short of a clean earnings beat and confident guidance could challenge that optimism.

With Intel stock hovering near $100.40 and a 341.57% one-year run, both sides have ammunition.

Bull Case

• Polymarket assigns a 95.5% probability Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) beats, backed by six consecutive quarters of revenue upside.
• DCAI surged 22% YoY and Foundry 16% last quarter, with Intel 18A now in high-volume manufacturing.
• Anchor partnerships with Google, NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) ($5.0 billion stake) and SoftBank ($2.0 billion) validate the turnaround.

Bear Case

• Foundry posted a $2.51 billion Q4 operating loss; Q1 free cash flow was -$3.87 billion.
• Q2 non-GAAP EPS guide of $0.20 steps down from Q1’s $0.29.
• Analysts skew cautious: 32 Hold versus 13 Buy, with just 9.12% implied upside.
• Shares already slid 27.19% over the past month, signaling fragile positioning.

What Wall Street Really Wants Tonight

Tonight, investors are waiting for Intel’s guidance moreso than Q2 results. Consensus sits at $14.45 billion in revenue against management’s prior guide of $13.8 to $14.8 billion, and CFO David Zinsner has telegraphed that “supply will go up in the second quarter. It is going to go up every quarter now going forward.”

Management guides conservatively, then beats. Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) has strung together six consecutive quarters of exceeding expectations.

Bullish scenario: Q3 revenue above $14.8B, non-GAAP gross margin holding 40%+, DCAI growth accelerating past 22%, and foundry losses narrowing from Q1’s $2.4 billion.

Bearish scenario: Revenue guide below $14B, margin under 38%, or any hint of a 14A pause. With shares near $99.66, guidance moves this stock more than the beat itself.

Intel enters tonight’s Q2 earnings report with expectations running high after a blowout first quarter.

Management previously guided for revenue of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.20, while Polymarket traders currently assign a 94.5% probability that Intel beats the EPS consensus.

The bigger question is what comes next. Intel’s red-hot rally from the low $20s one year ago to just below $100 today leaves little room for disappointing guidance.

A confident Q3 outlook could validate enthusiasm surrounding the Intel 18A ramp, the foundry customer pipeline, and the government’s stake in the company. However, a soft forecast could quickly revive concerns about foundry profitability, capital-spending discipline, and Intel’s negative free cash flow.