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Live: Can Intel Continue Its Meteoric 327% Run With Q2 Earnings Tonight?
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Quick Read
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INTC surged 178% year-to-date after six straight revenue beats, but Q2 guidance calls for non-GAAP EPS of $0.20, down from Q1's $0.29.
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Intel Foundry's path to profitability is the central rerating catalyst, with prior quarterly losses topping $3.2B and traders pricing 90% odds of a $5B quarter.
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Intel's rise from the $20s to $101 leaves little margin for error, with free cash flow deeply negative at nearly -$4B and Intel 18A economics still unproven.
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Stay On This Site to Receive Live Intel Q2 Earnings Updates
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This live blog is being updated by Thomas Richmond, a 24/7 Wall St. contributor. You’ll get expert analysis of Intel’s earnings.
Simply stay on this page, and new updates will appear below automatically. We expect Intel to release earnings shortly after 4:00 p.m. ET.
Intel’s Q3 Guidance Tonight Could Decide Whether Its Massive Rally Holds
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Intel enters tonight’s Q2 earnings report with expectations running high after a blowout first quarter.
Management previously guided for revenue of $13.8 billion to $14.8 billion and non-GAAP EPS of $0.20, while Polymarket traders currently assign a 94.5% probability that Intel beats the EPS consensus.
The bigger question is what comes next. Intel’s red-hot rally from the low $20s one year ago to just below $100 today leaves little room for disappointing guidance.
A confident Q3 outlook could validate enthusiasm surrounding the Intel 18A ramp, the foundry customer pipeline, and the government’s stake in the company. However, a soft forecast could quickly revive concerns about foundry profitability, capital-spending discipline, and Intel’s negative free cash flow.
Intel (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) reports Q2 FY2026 at 4:00 PM ET after the bell today, with the earnings call scheduled for 5:00 PM ET. Shares trade around $100.98, up 178.1% year-to-date and 327.42% in the past year but down 27.19% over the past month.
Momentum Meets Reset Fatigue
Q1 delivered a sixth consecutive revenue beat. Revenue reached $13.577 billion, up 7.18% YoY and ahead of the $12.43 billion consensus. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 demolished the $0.0127 estimate.
Non-GAAP gross margin expanded to 41.0% from 39.2%. Data Center and AI revenue climbed 22% YoY to $5.052 billion, and Intel Foundry rose 16% to $5.421 billion. A $4.07 billion Mobileye impairment drove the GAAP net loss of -$3.728 billion. Shares peaked near $119.84 within 30 days before fading into today’s report.
Consensus Estimates and Guidance
| Metric | Q2 2026 Guide | Q1 2026 Actual | FY26 OpEx Target |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $13.8B to $14.8B | $13.577B | N/A |
| Non-GAAP EPS | $0.20 | $0.29 | N/A |
| Non-GAAP Gross Margin | ~39.0% | 41.0% | N/A |
| Non-GAAP OpEx | N/A | N/A | ~$16.5B |
Analysts’ estimates imply the business will see modest sequential margin compression and softer EPS compared to Q1, even at the high end of the revenue range. That reflects lower prior-quarter inventory tailwinds and early Intel 18A ramp costs weighing on the revenue mix.
Foundry Math and AI Attach Take Center Stage
Tonight, I’ll be watching Intel Foundry’s operating loss trajectory closely. Prior quarters ran at $2.51B, $2.3B, and $3.2B in losses through late FY25, so any narrowing could signal that Intel 18A is pulling through. Polymarket assigns 90.5% odds that Foundry revenue clears $5B, but only 65% for $5.5B.
DCAI cadence is another focal point. Management flagged double-digit sequential growth tied to supply, pricing, and utilization. Traders price 82.5% odds of exceeding $5.5B. Lip-Bu Tan’s positioning around agentic AI matters here. He told investors last quarter that “The next wave of AI will bring intelligence closer to the end user, moving from foundational models to inference to agentic.”
I’ll also track any product and partnership updates, such as the NVIDIA DGX Rubin NVL8 Xeon 6-socket, the Google Xeon and custom IPU partnership, and Panther Lake OEM design momentum.
Earnings History
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | Day-Of Move | 1-Week Move | 30-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | +2,183.46% | +23.6% | +20.69% | +47.53% |
| Q4 2025 | +80.72% | -17.03% | +3.11% | +4.02% |
| Q3 2025 | +3,050.68% | +0.31% | +4.47% | -6.4% |
| Q2 2025 | -1,175.27% | -8.53% | -6.71% | +17.63% |
On average, shares moved +4.88% seven days after earnings over the past year.
Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.
Thomas Richmond is a financial writer and content strategist with 5+ years of experience covering stocks and financial markets. He has published over 250 articles focused on individual stock analysis, helping investors better understand business fundamentals, stock valuations, and long-term opportunities.
Thomas previously served as a Content Lead at TIKR, a stock research platform, where he helped scale the company’s blog to hundreds of articles per month and contributed to a weekly newsletter reaching more than 100,000 investors.
He specializes in breaking down complex companies into clear, actionable insights for everyday investors, with a focus on fundamentals-driven research.
His work has also been featured on platforms including Seeking Alpha and Sure Dividend.
Outside of work, Thomas enjoys weight lifting and soccer.
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