Live update #19

Why Are IREN Shares Down 25% After Hours?

Its hard to pinpoint exactly the reason for IREN’s continued drop (now at 25% after hours after dropping 11% today).

But we’d once again point to the fact the company hasn’t announced customers, which leaves it ‘dependent’ on hyperscalers like Microsoft.

We’ll see if this is an overreaction. Next quarter the company could annoucne several deals that came to fruition and reverse tonight’s decline, but the market is aggressively selling off ‘momentum’ and ‘speculative’ companies right now, which includes a stock of IREN’s profile.

Contact [email protected] for any questions or corrections.

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Eric Bleeker

IREN shares are now down 20%.

It appears ther was accelerated selling in the past few minutes and we’re looking through the call to see if something specific was said.

Eric Bleeker

If you’ve enjoyed tonight’s live blog, make sure to check out our AI Investor Podcast.

Every week I (24/7 Wall St Technology Analyst Eric Bleeker) break down the biggest news in the AI space.

Next week I’ll be issuing a new round of recommendations. Will IREN make the cut?

It’s free to subscribe, so why not add it to your favorite podcast player?

Eric Bleeker

Here’s some more details on IREN’s 1.6 gigawatt Oklahoma site from their conference call:

“The other factor that strengthens our position with customers is a scale of our secured power. As Dan mentioned, we have secured a new 1.6 gigawatt data center campus in Oklahoma. Further strengthening what is already 1 of the most differentiated power portfolios in the sector. The 2,000-acre Oklahoma site is a strong addition with low latency connectivity to major network exchanges and ramp schedule commencing in 2028. As with Sweetwater, the megawatts for this new site in Oklahoma remains secured, which enables commercial discussions to progress meaningfully anchored on firm deliverable capacity.

It’s also worth noting that this site is a result of work that has been underway for years. It reflects the depth of our internal development capability and our team’s ability to consistently source and secure gigawatt scale grid connections in a power constrained market. Importantly, this new site does more than just add capacity. It broadens our U.S. data center pipeline beyond ERCOT into a market that’s attractive to hyperscalers at a time when AI demand continues to outpace supply.

As Dan mentioned, we’re advancing multiple active negotiations with a range of hyperscale and non-hyperscale counterparties. And what we consistently see is that customers are focused on partners who have secured power can deliver full data center infrastructure on a defined time line and who can grow with them and scale over the long term. In other words, time to data center has become the key decision point in many of these commercial discussions. That dynamic plays directly to our strands. “

Eric Bleeker

Here’s what Ken Draper had to say on tonight’s call:

“The takeaway from this next slide is the amount of runway that we have ahead of us. Our $3.4 billion ARR target for the end of calendar 2026 reflects utilization of only around 10% of our 4.5 gigawatts of secured grid-connected power capacity. That means the vast majority of our portfolio remains available to support additional deployments.

With demand continuing to build that secured capacity gives us the ability to keep engaging customers on new large-scale opportunities and to extend growth well beyond the 2026 target.”

Eric Bleeker

One question heading into IREN’s call was whether they might announce any new customers. It appears that won’t be the case. Here’s what Daniel Roberts had to say:

“Second, on customers. As I mentioned, we are in multiple about negotiations. And at this point, demand is not the constraint for us. The focus is on choosing the right long-term partnerships that support durable platform level growth.

And thirdly, on capital, we continue to diversify our sources of capital to support capacity growth and customer deployment. We have multiple financing pathways underway that allow us to scale our data center and GPU footprint in a disciplined manner, while importantly, maintaining balance sheet stream. This includes additional GPU financing, data center financing and selective corporate initiatives, which Anthony will delve into. ”

It’s not bad that the company isn’t announcing partners, but it does decrease the odds the company will reverse after-hours losses.

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Eric Bleeker

Here’s how co-CEO Daniel Roberts opened IREN’s conference call:

“Thanks, Mike, and thank you, everyone, for joining us today. Fiscal Quarter 2 was an important quarter for IREN as we made meaningful progress as a vertically integrated AI cloud platform. Let me start with the highlights. Firstly, we secured underwriting commitments for $3.6 billion of GPU financing at an interest rate of less than 6%. Together with customer prepayments, this provides funding coverage for approximately 95% of the GPU related

CapEx supporting our $9.7 billion AI contract with Microsoft. . Importantly, this financing package provides greater clarity to also advance a broader set of customer discussions. In that regard, customer demand remains very strong and we are continuing to sign and negotiate contracts for both new and prior generation GPUs. We have multiple advanced negotiations underway for larger-scale deployments and are also seeing hyperscalers and AI enterprises increasingly focused on air-cooled GPUs given the faster deployment time lines.

Operationally, execution is tracking well across the portfolio, and we expect to deliver 140,000 GPUs by the end of 2026 positioning us to deliver $3.4 billion in annualized run rate revenue. Construction across Horizon 1 through to 4 is progressing to schedule. And in British Columbia, we continue to expand our AI cloud footprint with just under $0.5 billion of ARR now under contract for Prince George. Finally, we extended our growth runway again by securing a new 1.6 gigawatt site in Oklahoma, taking our total secured power to over 4.5 gigawatts. This reflects the strength of our internal development team in securing gigawatt scale sites in a power constrained market and supports continued conversion of capacity into customer contracts over time. So that’s the quarter in summary. Those outcomes reflect the assets, capability and execution discipline we’ve built over time, which I’ll cover next. Over the past 7 years, we’ve built a strong platform grounded in real assets, power, land, data centers and just as importantly, human capital.

That foundation is what gives IREN a durable competitive moat. We have secured more than 4.5 gigawatts of power, stood up 810 megawatts of operating data centers signed billions of dollars of AI customer contracts and assembled a team of over 2,000 people to execute on them. These assets and capabilities are not easy replicable. They are the results of years of hard work. As a founder-led business, we have been fully committed to building a platform with lasting value. And Will and I are deeply invested in this platform along with the rest of the management team. That mindset matters as it shapes how we allocate capital, how we partner with customers and how we think about long-term value creation.”

Eric Bleeker

We will post updates during IREN’s conference call. If you leave this page open new updates will appear automatically.

Remember, IREN shares largely move on forward-looking commentary, so the call could be very impactful and determine where shares open tomorrow.

Eric Bleeker

IREN’s conference call starts at 5 p.m. ET tonight. Here’s some areas Wall Street will likely press on.

Five Critical Questions for Future Earnings Calls

  1. Oklahoma Campus Timeline: When will the 1.6GW Oklahoma facility begin generating revenue? Power ramps from 2028, but what’s the path to profitability?
  2. Microsoft Contract Progress: How much of the $9.7 billion Microsoft deal converts to actual ARR by year-end 2026?
  3. Cash Management: With $2.8 billion cash and massive infrastructure spending, what’s the burn rate? Are there any updates on financing expectations?
  4. Demand Visibility: CEO Roberts cited “strongest demand environment”—what further ‘color’ will be added to that statement?

Red Flags to Monitor

Watch for vague answers on revenue timing, delayed facility construction, or financing gaps for GPU expansion.

Eric Bleeker

IREN shares are now down 8%.

That’s better than our last update, when shares were down 13%. Yet, its still another drop after shares fell 11% during trading today.

Why are shares selling off? Its not because of last quarter’s results. The company is pivoting from crypto revenue and almost all reaction is forward-looking as AI data center revenue is still minimal.

The company sounded bullish in their release. Here’s what Daniel Roberts had to say:

“We are seeing the strongest demand environment to date, and importantly, that demand is being met by a proven execution capability. Over several years, we have consistently delivered data center capacity on time and at scale, and that delivery track record continues to resonate with customers who value reliability alongside performance.”

Its not quite clear why the reaction flipped. Could it be the market was expecting a higher ARR figure by the end of 2026?

IREN’s conference call starts at 5 p.m. and will give management more time to discuss their Oklahoma campus and what kind of demand they’re seeing.

Eric Bleeker

IREN shares continue to sell-off after initially jumping. They’re down 13% now.

Here’s what the company had to say about financing in their earnings release:

  • IREN continues to strengthen its capital structure and fund growth through diversified sources:
    • Cash and cash equivalents were $2.8bn as of January 31, 20264
    • >$9.2bn funding secured financial year to date across customer prepayments, convertible notes, GPU leasing and GPU financing
  • Ongoing financing workstreams include:
    • GPU financing
    • Data center financing
    • Select corporate level initiatives
Eric Bleeker

The big news from IREN’s earnings is the announcement of a gigawatt sized campus in Oklahoma.

Here’s what the company has to say about the project:

  • New 1.6GW data center campus in Oklahoma
    • Increases secured grid-connected power to >4.5GW
    • Grid-studies complete, with power scheduled to ramp from 2028
    • Large scale site (2,000 acres) with low latency network connectivity
Eric Bleeker

The investor relations page for IREN is still down. Once again this happened last quarter as well. We cover hundreds of earnings every quarter and this is extraordinarily rare.

Eric Bleeker

Shares of IREN just reversed dramatically and are now down 7.4% after hours.

Eric Bleeker

Here’s what we’re seeing for IREN.

Revenue is $184.7 million, which is signficantly below expectations.

However, cash is now at $3.26 billion and the company has secured $3.6 billion in financing for its Microsoft contract.

Eric Bleeker

IREN’s investor relations page is still crashed, but their earnings are out.

Shares are up 5% immediately. We’ll do our best to get the information from SEC filings as their website is still down (again).

Eric Bleeker

You have got to be kidding me, last quarter we posted again and again in our live blog how bad IREN’s investor relations website was, and its crashed again.

Eric Bleeker

We expect IREN earnings to drop shortly after the closing bell. Here’s what you need to do to get prepared:

  • Know the numbers to watch: Wall Street expects revenue of $227 million and EPS of -.07. However, management commentary will matter far more than whether IREN ‘beats’ last quarter’s expectations.
  • Stay on this live blog for updates: We’ll be posting news and analysis right after earnings drop, simply stay on this live blog and new updates should appear automatically.
  • Check out the AI Investor Podcast: Make sure to subscribe to our AI Investor Podcast to get all the biggest news and stock recommendations delivered to your favorite podcast player.
Eric Bleeker

Selling has been absolutely brutal across technology and momentum stocks the past week. IREN shares are down another 32% today.

Its a tough environment that’s punishing any slight missteps in outsized ways. We’ll need to watch what IREN says closely tonight because any perceived weakness could lead to steep losses tomorrow.

View the full live blog (19 updates) →