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Strategy Inc (NASDAQ: MSTR | MSTR Price Prediction) reports fourth-quarter 2025 results on February 3, 2026, with investors bracing for the company’s first earnings call since Bitcoin plunged and the stock shed 67% over the past year. The company’s unconventional Bitcoin treasury strategy faces its toughest test yet.
Bitcoin Volatility Drives Stock Collapse
MSTR shares have crashed 27.5% year-to-date and 30% over the past month. The culprit: Bitcoin’s decline from $87,498 on January 1 to $72,725 on February 5, a 17% drop that hammered the company’s 640,808 BTC holdings valued at $70.9 billion.
The stock now trades at $110.11, far below its 52-week high of $457.22. Multiple class action lawsuits allege the company overstated the profitability of its Bitcoin strategy and understated volatility risks, adding legal pressure to market headwinds.
Consensus Estimates
| Metric |
Q4 2025 Est. |
| EPS |
-$20.99 |
| Revenue |
$ 118.47M |
Analysts expect negative earnings, a sharp reversal from Q3’s $8.42 EPS that missed estimates.
Mark-to-Market Accounting Creates Extreme Volatility
I’ll be watching how management frames the impact of fair value accounting adopted in 2025. Last quarter’s guidance projected net income ranging from -$5.5 billion to +$6.3 billion depending on Bitcoin prices between $85,000 and $110,000. With Bitcoin now at $72,725, expect substantial unrealized losses.
Reddit sentiment has turned very bearish, with retail investors fixated on liquidation thresholds. One popular thread warned Saylor is “3% away from negative Bitcoin position” based on the company’s $74,032 per BTC cost basis.
Capital Structure Under Scrutiny
The company established a $1.44 billion USD reserve to cover dividend payments and debt interest without selling Bitcoin. Management continues aggressive accumulation, acquiring 855 BTC for $75.3 million as recently as February 2. Investors will be watching whether this strategy remains credible given the stock now trades at 0.74x book value.
This Quarter Decides Strategy Viability
After two quarters of extreme earnings misses and mounting legal challenges, management needs to prove the Bitcoin treasury model works during crypto downturns. If guidance suggests forced liquidations or capital raises at depressed prices, institutional holders may reassess their positions.
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