Live Earnings: Coverage of Strategy’s Q3 Earnings
Key Points
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MicroStrategy reports after the close with analysts expecting $9.67 EPS on $116.9 million in revenue.
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The company’s Q2 blowout EPS of $32.60 marked its most profitable quarter ever, up 382% above consensus.
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Live Updates
Betting Markets Said Strategy Had Less than a 5% Chance of Beating Earnings: They Just Did
Heading into the earnings, prediction traders on Polymarket gave Strategy Inc. (NASDAQ: MSTR) less than a 5% chance of beating earnings, pricing in skepticism that Bitcoin stability and balance-sheet maneuvers could repeat the prior quarter’s record performance. Analysts expected $9.67 in normalized EPS on $116.9 million in revenue, a setup implying moderation after Q2’s explosive results.
Instead, the company delivered another high-impact quarter. GAAP EPS came in at $8.42 on $128.7 million in revenue, while net income surged to $2.8 billion, driven by a $3.9 billion unrealized gain on Bitcoin holdings. Strategy expanded its BTC reserves to 640,808 coins, worth roughly $73 billion, and reaffirmed full-year targets of $80 EPS, $34 billion in operating income, and a 30% BTC yield.
Management struck an assertive tone on the call. CEO Phong Le highlighted $20 billion raised year-to-date and confirmed the firm remains “on track” for its Bitcoin yield and gain goals. Executive Chairman Michael Saylor framed Strategy as “the leading issuer of digital credit,” underscoring how the company’s capital market products, STRK, STRF, STRD, and STRC, are enabling an institutional “Bitcoin yield curve.”
The results reinforced Strategy’s hybrid identity as both a Bitcoin-centric treasury and a software-driven analytics platform, with software growth again posting double-digit gains. Shares rose roughly 4% after hours as the market absorbed the reaffirmed guidance and the company’s expanding role as the “Bitcoin central bank” of public markets.
What began as a long-shot bet against the odds turned into another validation of Saylor’s conviction trade. The numbers didn’t just beat the market—they reasserted Strategy’s position as the purest institutional proxy for Bitcoin exposure on Wall Street.
Michael Saylor Hits Earnings
Strategy came in strong this quarter, printing $2.8 billion in net income and $8.42 in EPS, driven largely by unrealized Bitcoin gains and solid execution on its balance sheet strategy. The firm expanded its holdings to 640,808 BTC, reaffirmed full-year guidance, and continues to operate like a leveraged Bitcoin treasury with institutional-grade discipline. The tone from management was confident, and given the reaffirmation of its $80 full-year EPS target, this print reinforces why MSTR remains the institutional proxy for Bitcoin exposure. Shares are up about 4% after hours, the market clearly likes what it sees.
| Quarter | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 2025 | –8.77% | +0.04% | –7.20% |
| Q1 2025 | +3.35% | +8.59% | +4.04% |
| Q4 2024 | –3.34% | –2.93% | –5.35% |
MicroStrategy (NASDAQ: MSTR) reports fiscal third-quarter results after the close Thursday. The company has transformed from a business intelligence software provider into the world’s largest publicly traded Bitcoin treasury, a shift that has made its earnings one of the most Bitcoin-sensitive events on Wall Street.
In the second quarter, MicroStrategy reported normalized EPS of $6.76, easily surpassing consensus estimates and marking its strongest underlying operating performance to date. On a GAAP basis, EPS jumped to $32.60, primarily driven by fair-value revaluation of its Bitcoin holdings under the Financial Accounting Standards Board’s new mark-to-market rules. As of July 31, the company held 628,791 Bitcoin, representing about 3% of total global supply.
Since 2020, Executive Chairman Michael Saylor and CEO Phong Le have repositioned MicroStrategy as what they call a “Bitcoin development company.” The firm’s strategy now includes perpetual preferred equity securities backed by Bitcoin—financial instruments that Saylor says could ultimately establish a “Bitcoin yield curve” for global investors.
What to Expect When MicroStrategy Reports
| Metric | Q3 2025 Estimate | Q4 2025 Estimate | FY 2025 | FY 2026 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $116.93 M | $118.15 M | $457.65 M | $472.12 M |
| EPS (Normalized) | $9.67 | $6.41 | $42.29 | $10.79 |
Key Areas to Watch
1. Bitcoin Holdings and Fair-Value Accounting- This will be the company’s second full quarter reporting under fair-value accounting standards. While Bitcoin’s price was largely stable through Q3, any revaluation impact on book equity will be closely analyzed. CFO Andrew Kang said in July that the company remains fully unencumbered and has added Bitcoin every quarter since 2020.
2. Preferred-Equity Capital Model- MicroStrategy has launched a suite of Bitcoin-backed preferred securities, Strike, Strife, Stride, and Stretch, to attract both institutional and retail investors seeking yield exposure. Kang confirmed the firm raised $18.3 billion in capital year-to-date by Q2, with these preferreds representing the foundation of its future balance sheet strategy.
3. BTC Yield and 2025 Guidance- CEO Phong Le reiterated full-year goals of 30% BTC yield and $20 billion BTC dollar gain if Bitcoin reaches $150,000 by year-end. Investors will look for updates on these targets and any commentary on planned leverage ratios between 30% and 50%.
4. Valuation and Multiple to NAV- Management has said the stock should trade between 2.5× and 4× market net asset value (mNAV), a range reflecting Bitcoin holdings and outstanding preferreds. With shares currently trading near the lower end of that band, sentiment may shift sharply depending on updated fair-value disclosures and treasury activity.
Joel South has been an avid investor and financial writer for over 15 years, publishing thousands of articles analyzing stocks, markets, and investment strategies across multiple leading financial media platforms. He spent 12 years at The Motley Fool, where he worked as an investment analyst and Bureau Chief before ascending to direct the Fool.com investing news desk, overseeing editorial operations and content strategy. During his tenure, Joel co-hosted an investing podcast and became a recognized voice in financial media through numerous TV and radio appearances discussing stock market trends and investment opportunities.
Currently serving as General Manager and Managing Editor at 24/7 Wall Street, Joel has published hundreds of in-depth analyses focusing on large-cap stocks, dividend-paying equities, and market-moving developments. His comprehensive coverage spans earnings previews, price predictions, and investment forecasts for major companies across all sectors—from technology giants and semiconductor manufacturers to consumer brands and financial institutions. Joel's expertise encompasses t fundamental analysis, options market interpretation, institutional investor behavior, and translating complex market dynamics into clear, actionable insights for individual investors.
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