Michael Burry has been erratically going bearish on the market multiple times in the past few years, but this time, he might have hit the nail on the head. Palantir (NASDAQ:PLTR | PLTR Price Prediction) has cratered from its highs, with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) trading sideways. These are two stocks he shorted a few months ago and drove headlines.
In Q3 2025, he did what many called the “Big Short 2.0”. Shortly before Burry deregistered his Scion Asset Management (just like he closed Scion Capital in 2008), it reported $912 million in PLTR put options and $186.6 million in NVDA put options.
He said that his “estimation of value in securities is not now, and has not been for some time, in sync with the markets,” but Burry seems to be having the last laugh. He spent the following months on Substack doubling down on PLTR bearishness and even revealing a fresh short position on Oracle (NYSE:ORCL) stock.
Here’s how his shorts are doing.
The Palantir short is delivering juicy gains
Burry’s AI bubble thesis is looking prescient on the Palantir side. PLTR stock is down 35% since he entered the trade, and he’s not walking away from it. Just this week, Burry posted a technical chart on X identifying a head-and-shoulders pattern in Palantir’s stock, capped by the $207 peak in November 2025. He believes this formation signals that PLTR could fall another 40% to 60% from current levels.
He sees the next support level a little below $100, followed by a “landing area” slightly above $50.
This is lower than the most bearish price target on PLTR stock at $70 right now. Considering his earlier stance on Palantir is now vindicated, a drop to the $50s no longer seems too unlikely. After all, you’re still paying a triple-digit earnings premium for this company. Meanwhile, the broader software sector is being hammered.
The S&P Software & Services Select Industry Index is down 19% in just the past month.
In his lengthy 10,000+ word Substack post, he laid out a detailed fundamental bear case arguing Palantir could be worth as little as $46 per share.
His Q4 2025 13F filing is due tomorrow, February 14, 2026. This will reveal whether he rolled, expanded, or partially closed his put positions before winding down Scion Asset Management in late 2025. Since the fund was liquidated, the filing should show the final state of his positions as of December 31, 2025.
The Nvidia puts aren’t doing too well
Michael Burry’s Q3 filing had him betting 13.5% of his portfolio against NVDA stock. He later said on X that these puts had a strike price of $110, expiring on December 17, 2027. There’s thus a long way to go, and we don’t really know what he paid for these shorts or when he bought them during Q3 last year.
What we do know is that these NVDA puts aren’t doing too well yet.
Earlier in January, Burry said his Nvidia bet was “the most concentrated way to express a bearish view on the artificial intelligence trade”.
His argument is that the stock is cheap to short since it is “the most loved, and least doubted,” meaning its put options are relatively cheap compared to more controversial AI names.
On top of that, unlike Meta (NASDAQ:META), Alphabet (NASDAQ:GOOG, NASDAQ:GOOGL), or Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), Nvidia’s valuation is based purely on AI. This means when you’re shorting Nvidia, you’re not inadvertently betting against a strong advertising arm of the business.
But even though those arguments are good, he has yet to see success with the NVDA puts. The demand for Nvidia’s chips remains strong. The company has hundreds of billions in sales it still needs to clear. Suffice to say, the floor isn’t that low, either. NVDA stock already trades at ~24 times forward earnings. Earnings would have to collapse before the stock does. The opposite is happening instead.
I believe these NVDA puts will lose him money by year-end 2027 unless the expiry lines up with a cyclical downturn.
But this third AI short is doing even better
Burry disclosed on Substack that he holds put options on ORCL stock and has been shorting it for the past six months. He didn’t reveal what the strike prices are or what his position looks like, but it’s almost a given that he’s making money off of his puts.
ORCL stock has cratered by over 51% from its peak in Q3 2025. The market was overly optimistic on this stock, and the gains were wiped out rather quickly. Burry said, “It did not need to do what it is doing, and I do not know why it is doing this. Maybe ego,” when questioned about Oracle’s AI buildout.
The bigger picture is that his shorts are now vindicated and are doing quite well. The Big Short 2.0 is off to a great start so far. Only time will tell if his doubling down ends up being a mistake.
Top Gaining Stocks
Top Losing Stocks