Seagate’s Stock Has Outperformed 99% of the S&P 500 in 2026
Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX | STX Price Prediction) has delivered one of the market’s most impressive performances to start 2026. The stock has surged 56.6% year-to-date through February 12, crushing the S&P 500 over the same period. Here’s what’s more impressive:…
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Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX | STX Price Prediction) has delivered one of the market’s most impressive performances to start 2026. The stock has surged 56.6% year-to-date through February 12, crushing the S&P 500 over the same period. Here’s what’s more impressive: Seagate is the 5th best performer in the entire S&P500,meaning it’s outperforming 99% of other large-cap stocks so far this year!
Even more striking: the rally extends a remarkable 335% climb over the past year, transforming what was once a cyclical storage play into an AI infrastructure darling.
Blowout Earnings Fuel the Rally
Seagate’s January 27 earnings report provided the latest catalyst. The company posted $2.83 billion in revenue versus estimates of $2.76 billion, marking 21.7% year-over-year growth. Non-GAAP EPS of $3.11 crushed the $2.84 consensus by 9.5%. This marked the company’s eighth consecutive quarter of positive earnings surprises, a streak that began during its 2023 turnaround from losses.
The real story lives in the margins. Seagate delivered a record 42.2% gross margin and 31.9% operating margin. Free cash flow jumped 305% year-over-year to $607 million. CEO Dave Mosley framed the results clearly: “Seagate’s December quarter results exceeded our expectations on both the top and bottom line, setting new records for gross margin, operating margin, and non-GAAP EPS.”
The AI Storage Thesis Takes Hold
What separates this rally from previous Seagate rallies is the fundamental shift in its business model. The company’s HAMR-based Mozaic products are now qualified with five major cloud customers, positioning Seagate to capture AI-driven storage demand at scale. Mosley articulated the opportunity: “As AI applications amplify the creation and economic value of data, modern data centers increasingly need storage solutions that combine performance and cost-efficiency at exabyte-scale.”
The market is massive. Mosley believes data center infrastructure represents a multi-trillion-dollar modernization cycle through 2030. Seagate’s areal density leadership through HAMR technology gives it a structural advantage as hyperscalers balance performance requirements against power and cost constraints. Reddit sentiment reflects this conviction, with r/wallstreetbets showing bullish sentiment of 70 and a spike to 525 upvotes during early January discussions.
What’s Next for Seagate
Management’s Q3 guidance calls for $2.90 billion in revenue and $3.47 EPS, implying continued sequential growth. Wall Street sees more upside, with analysts setting a $467.67 price target on the stock, roughly 8% above current levels. The analyst community is overwhelmingly bullish, with 19 buy or strong buy ratings versus just one sell.
Seagate’s valuation reflects this optimism. Seagate trades at 33x forward earnings with a PEG ratio of 0.91, suggesting the market believes earnings growth can justify the multiple. Peer Western Digital (NASDAQ:WDC) has climbed 64.9% year-to-date, confirming the storage sector is riding a genuine wave rather than company-specific hype.
The difference: Seagate’s execution has been cleaner, its margins higher, and its HAMR technology differentiation more pronounced. If AI infrastructure spending continues accelerating through 2026, Seagate’s stellar start may prove to be just the beginning of a multi-year growth cycle.
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Eric Bleeker has been investing for more than 20 years. He began his career working at Microsoft before joining Motley Fool, one of the largest publishers of financial research. In his 15 years at Motley Fool Eric served as the General Manager for Fool.com and led coverage in the Technology & Telecom sector. In addition, he was a featured columnist and has hosted dozens of investing seminars attended by more than a million total investors. Eric has more than 1,000 financial bylines to his name and has been featured in The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, Fox Business, and many other leading publications. He is currently focused on artificial intelligence investing and is a CFA Charterholoder.
