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Seagate Technology (NASDAQ:STX | STX Price Prediction) reports fiscal Q3 2026 earnings tonight after the market close. Shares have surged into the earnings report, and the bar set by management is high.
The Setup After a Blowout December Quarter
Last quarter, Seagate posted non-GAAP EPS of $3.11 on revenue of $2.825 billion, up 21.51% year over year, with non-GAAP gross margin hitting a record 42.2%. Free cash flow jumped to $607 million, the highest level in eight years. Since that January report, STX has rallied 60.57%, including a 10.4% move in the past week alone.
Guidance and Consensus
Management’s own guidance is the cleanest benchmark heading in.
| Metric |
Q3 FY26 Guide |
Q2 FY26 Actual |
| Revenue |
$2.90B (+/- $100M) |
$2.825B |
| Non-GAAP EPS |
$3.40 (+/- $0.20) |
$3.11 |
| Operating Margin |
Mid-30% range |
31.9% |
The midpoint represents a 34% year-over-year revenue lift.
What I’m Watching Tonight
Three pillars matter most. First, the HAMR ramp. Quarterly Mozaic shipments crossed 1.5 million units by year-end 2025, with Mozaic 4 (4 terabytes per disk) set to begin ramping later this quarter. Second, nearline demand. Data center revenue hit $2.2 billion last quarter and capacity is fully allocated through calendar 2026, with 2027 orders opening soon. Third, margin trajectory. CFO Gianluca Romano said the company is tracking ahead of the Investor Day model of 50% incremental margin above $2.6 billion of revenue, with March quarter gross margin guided up roughly 250 basis points.
Pricing is the underrated variable. CEO Dave Mosley said “flat to slightly up is certainly possible” as supply tightens through 2027.
Why Tonight Matters
STX trades at 66 times earnings with a market cap near $131 billion. After three straight beats and a vertical rally, the bar for tonight is execution, not surprise. Reaffirming full-allocation visibility into 2027 would extend the AI storage thesis. Anything less invites profit-taking.
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