JPMorgan’s Stephen Tusa just initiated coverage of SPX Technologies SPXC with an Overweight rating and a $260 price target, and the signal is unambiguously bullish. The thesis is straightforward: SPX Technologies has positioned itself at the intersection of two of the most durable infrastructure trends of this decade, data center cooling and engineered air movement, and the capacity to capture that demand is being built right now.
What the Analyst Community Is Saying
JPMorgan’s initiation isn’t a lone voice. The broader analyst consensus on SPXC sits at “Moderate Buy” across 9 brokerages, with 7 Buy ratings, 3 Holds, and zero Sells. The consensus price target from Alpha Vantage sits at $266.70, while the news sentiment data shows a target range of $244 to $262.67. Truist recently raised its target to $244, and Wells Fargo and Oppenheimer also increased their targets. The street is moving in one direction on this name.
The core of JPMorgan’s thesis tracks directly to what management is building. SPX is investing roughly $100 million in HVAC manufacturing capacity in 2026, on top of the $92.1 million in capital expenditures completed in FY2025. When fully ramped, management says these expansions represent approximately $700 million of incremental revenue capacity, with roughly $550 million tied directly to data center demand.
The Numbers Behind the Thesis
SPX reported Q4 2025 revenue of $637.3 million, beating estimates of $625.9 million, with year-over-year growth of 19.4%. The HVAC segment, the one JPMorgan is most focused on, delivered $431.1 million in Q4 revenue, up 16.4% year-over-year.
Data center revenue is the growth engine within that segment. CEO Gene Lowe put the numbers plainly on the earnings call:
“We had talked about some of the numbers we would share previously that 2025 would be about 9% of revenue. It is in the neighborhood of $200,000,000, maybe a little bit more than $200,000,000. We would anticipate that to be, as we said, low double digits, say, 12%. So we would expect nice growth here, probably in the 50% neighborhood for our data centers going into 2026.”
That’s not a rounding error. A 50% growth rate in the segment’s highest-demand vertical, backed by multi-year hyperscaler commitments and a product line the CEO calls a “winner,” is the kind of visibility that earns an Overweight from JPMorgan.
The Gap Between Wall Street and Where the Stock Trades
SPXC is currently trading at $224.41, which is below JPMorgan’s $260 target and below the consensus of $266.70. The stock is up 12.17% year-to-date and 63.54% over the past year, but it sold off 7.9% immediately following Q4 earnings on concerns about margin quality and organic growth composition.
That selloff is the gap worth examining. Q4 organic revenue growth came in at 7.6%, with 10.9% inorganic, raising legitimate questions about how much of the growth story depends on acquisitions rather than underlying demand. The forward P/E of 28.9x is not cheap for an industrial, and some analysts flag valuation as demanding at current multiples.
But the counter-argument is structural. SPX’s capacity additions don’t hit full production until 2027 and 2028. The organic growth rate in 2026 should accelerate as new facilities ramp, and FY2026 guidance calls for adjusted EPS of $7.60 to $8.00, representing roughly 15% growth at the midpoint.
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