I’d Own VGT for the Next 30 Years, And Never Look Back

VGT is a stock worth owning for decades because it gives you low-cost, diversified exposure to the companies that will define how the global economy operates — not as a speculative bet, but as a structural position in the industry that keeps growing its share of everything.

Pillar One: A Durable Structure Built to Last

The Vanguard Information Technology ETF has been running since January 26, 2004 — through the dot-com hangover, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic crash, and every rate cycle in between. It holds 400+ companies across semiconductors, enterprise software, cloud infrastructure, and cybersecurity. The top three positions — NVIDIA at 18.05%, Apple at 14.33%, and Microsoft at 10.94% — represent the most profitable technology franchises ever built. The fund charges just 9 basis points annually, and its portfolio turnover rate is 0.08 — meaning Vanguard runs this fund the same way you should hold it: patiently. With $126.5 billion in assets under management, it is not going anywhere.

The structural case goes beyond the fund itself. The U.S. Information sector’s value added to GDP has grown from $1,350.8 billion in Q1 2022 to $1,718.8 billion in Q3 2025, and its share of total GDP has risen from 5.3% to 5.5% over that span. Technology is not a cycle — it is a compounding share of the economy.

Pillar Two: Compounding at a Rate That Matters

VGT does not yield much — its dividend yield is 0.38% — so this is not an income vehicle. The compounding case is price appreciation, and the record is clear. Over the past ten years, VGT returned 666.42%, rising from $96.15 to $736.89. Over the same period, SPY returned 235.61% and QQQ returned 474.25%. VGT did not just beat the market — it nearly tripled QQQ’s return and nearly tripled SPY’s return over a decade. The five-year return of 112.06% versus SPY’s 72.92% shows the pattern holds across shorter windows too. Information sector corporate profits nearly doubled from $164.8 billion in Q1 2022 to $304.0 billion in Q3 2025. That profit growth is what drives the price appreciation over time.

Pillar Three: It Survives the Cycles

Tech sells off hard when rates rise. The 10-year Treasury sits at 4.15% today, and VGT is down 2.24% year-to-date. That is the risk you accept. In a sustained high-rate environment, VGT will lag defensive and value-oriented funds — possibly for years. If you need income or cannot tolerate a 30–40% drawdown without selling, this is not your fund.

But every prior drawdown in VGT’s history was eventually erased and then some. The one-year return of 34.57% — against SPY’s 21.39% — is what happens when you hold through the pain instead of selling into it. The companies inside VGT generate real profits, grow their earnings, and reinvest at scale. That is what pulls the price back up every time.

VGT is not a trade with an exit price — it is a permanent allocation to the industry that keeps taking a larger share of the economy, held cheaply, patiently, and for as long as you can.

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