Ulta Beauty Price Prediction: Post-Earnings Selloff Creates Entry Opportunity

Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ:ULTA) has had a volatile few weeks. The stock is down more than 14% over the past week and down nearly 20% over the past month, bringing its year-to-date loss to more than 11%.

The stock sits well below its 52-week high of $714.97, and the Street consensus target sits at $701.50. Most analysts hold more measured views, but JPMorgan is standing apart with a bold $750 price target. That represents meaningful upside from the current price of $624.70. But can ULTA realistically reach $750 by the end of 2026?

JPMorgan’s $750 ULTA Prediction

JPMorgan rates Ulta Overweight with a $750 price target, lowered from $800, and recommends using the post-earnings selloff as a buying opportunity. The firm’s conviction rests on two observations: management’s guidance is viewed as conservative, and the company’s quarter-to-date comparable sales are tracking well above JPMorgan’s own 4% estimate. That combination suggests the market is selling into a setup where forward results could meaningfully surprise to the upside.

The sell-off itself fits a familiar pattern. When Ulta posted a 14.61% earnings beat in Q2 2026, shares dropped 7.14% on the day, only to recover 12.85% over the following 30 days. Thursday’s 4.28% decline on a 12.03% earnings beat looks like a replay of that pattern.

Key Drivers of ULTA Stock Performance

1. Conservative guidance creating upside potential. Ulta’s FY2026 diluted EPS guidance of $28.05 to $28.55 may prove too cautious if QTD comps hold.
2. The Unleashed strategy driving share gains. Morgan Stanley, also Overweight at $700, cites Ulta’s Unleashed strategy as reinforcing share gain potential in a competitive beauty market. New brand launches, bold merchandising, and loyalty program depth keep Ulta’s moat wide.
3. International expansion opening new growth runways. The Space NK acquisition and ventures in Mexico and the Middle East add long-term compounding levers beyond the saturating U.S. store base, exactly the kind of durable growth that has historically attracted long-term investors.

What Will It Take for ULTA to Reach $750?

With 44.36 million shares outstanding, getting there likely requires three things: comparable sales growth tracking toward the high end or above guidance, continued EPS beats that validate the conservative guidance thesis, and sustained execution on the Unleashed strategy and international buildout.

The primary risk is SG&A deleverage, with operating margin expected to contract to 11.7% to 11.8% as strategic investments weigh on near-term profitability. JPMorgan rates Ulta Overweight with a $750 price target, lowered from $800, citing the post-earnings selloff as creating potential upside relative to its target. JPMorgan’s $750 target is premised on durable competitive advantages, a powerful loyalty ecosystem, and a management team that has consistently delivered above expectations.