LAC Stock Up 32% Over the Past Year But Share Dilution Is Quietly Piling Up

By David Beren Published Mar 22, 6:00AM EDT

Quick Read

Lithium Americas (LAC) is spending $1.3B to $1.6B on 2026 capital expenditures at its Thacker Pass project with a $2.23B DOE loan facility and 38% General Motors joint venture backing the development. The company faces dilution pressure from 100.7 million shares sold in 2025-2026 and net losses of $86.3M in 2025, with -$0.9725 EPS expected for 2026. MP Materials and other domestic mineral producers are viewed as national security hedges against Chinese rare earth restrictions.
Reddit sentiment for Lithium Americas swung from bullish to neutral as a geopolitical catalyst around China’s potential rare earth export controls faded, with the March 25 China briefing now holding more market relevance than the company’s earnings trajectory.
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LAC Stock Up 32% Over the Past Year But Share Dilution Is Quietly Piling Up — © Cavan Images / iStock via Getty Images

A Canadian-based mining company, Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC), is spending at a pace that would make most pre-revenue companies flinch. With $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion in capital expenditures planned for 2026 and a workforce set to nearly double to roughly 1,800 workers on site by late 2026, this is the peak construction year at Thacker Pass. The question Reddit investors are wrestling with: is Lithium Americas a rare domestic lithium play backed by the U.S. government, or is relentless share dilution quietly eating away at future upside?

Sentiment shifted noticeably over the past week. LAC held a bullish score of 78 on r/stocks from March 12 through 13 before sliding to a neutral 58 on r/wallstreetbets by March 18, a 20-point drop tied to fading momentum around a geopolitical catalyst. Shares are down 8.74% over the past week, though still up 41.25% over the past year.

An infographic titled 'LITHIUM AMERICAS (LAC): THE $1.6 BILLION SPRINT & SENTIMENT'. Section 1, 'THE INVESTMENT', features a globe with the US map, highlighting Nevada with a pickaxe and a battery symbol. Text states: 'Lithium Americas (LAC), Thacker Pass Project, Nevada, $1.3B - $1.6B 2026 Capex, GM JV (38%) & DOE Loan Backed'. Section 2, 'SOCIAL SENTIMENT SCORE', shows a gauge displaying '58' labeled '(Neutral)', with text indicating it's from 'r/wallstreetbets (Mar 18)' and 'Down from 78 (Bullish, Mar 12-13)'. Section 3, 'WHAT IS DRIVING THAT SCORE TODAY', includes an icon of a web browser with an upward arrow and a speech bubble. Text attributes the score to 'Fading Momentum from Geopolitical Catalyst' and a 'Reddit Post: — This infographic details Lithium Americas’ (LAC) $1.3B-$1.6B 2026 Capex for the Thacker Pass Project, its current social sentiment score of 58 (Neutral), and the geopolitical factors influencing it.

China’s Rare Earth Move Lit the Fuse

The bullish spike on March 12 traced directly to a post on r/stocks titled “China May Place Rare Earth Mineral Restrictions March 25th.” User breakyourteethnow argued that LAC and peers like MP Materials were positioned as a national security hedge, writing: “Long term, I believe rare earth minerals even lithium and copper will become of national security. Companies like LAC & MP, which are building infrastructure backed by the Department of Energy, are a hedge against this problem, which surely will arise again and again.” The post reached 94 upvotes with a 0.94 upvote ratio.

China May Place Rare Earth Mineral Restrictions March 25th
by u/breakyourteethnow in stocks

By March 18, the conversation had migrated to r/wallstreetbets with a more skeptical tone. Three reasons the online debate stays split:

LAC sold 68.2 million shares in 2025 at an average of $5.98 per share, then added another 32.5 million shares post-year-end at $5.92, with a fresh ATM program now active while shares sit near $4.28
Net losses nearly doubled year-over-year to $86.3 million in 2025, with the 2026 EPS estimate at -$0.9725 per share as construction costs accelerate
Tariff exposure on equipment from Canada, China, India, the UAE, Turkey, and the EU creates real cost escalation risk against a $2.93 billion total Phase 1 capex estimate

The Backing Is Real, But the Clock Is Running

Among the bigger news for the company, LAC pulled a second DOE loan drawdown of $432 million in February 2026, bringing total DOE funding deployed to $867 million of a $2.23 billion facility. CEO Jonathan Evans called it a meaningful de-risking of the project, stating: “This investment reflects our shared commitment to rebuilding critical mineral supply chains here at home and reducing reliance on foreign sources.” With detailed engineering 93% complete and a GM joint venture holding a 38% stake, this is not a concept-stage story.

As of March 19, 2026, analysts are carrying a consensus price target of $6.53 against a current price near $4.04, with 3 buys and 9 holds reflecting the market’s wait-and-see posture. The next meaningful signal is whether the March 25 China rare-earth briefing yields real export controls or just noise. For LAC, that date matters more than any earnings report.

About the Author David Beren →

David Beren has been a Flywheel Publishing contributor since 2022. Writing for 24/7 Wall St. since 2023, David loves to write about topics of all shapes and sizes. As a technology expert, David focuses heavily on consumer electronics brands, automobiles, and general technology. He has previously written for LifeWire, formerly About.com.

As a part-time freelance writer, David’s “day job” has been working on and leading social media for multiple Fortune 100 brands. David loves the flexibility of this field and its ability to reach customers exactly where they like to spend their time. Additionally, David previously published his own blog, TmoNews.com, which reached 3 million readers in its first year.

In addition to freelance and social media work, David loves to spend time with his family and children and relive the glory days of video game consoles by playing any retro game console he can get his hands on.