President Trump’s Stock Bets Have Crushed the Market. Should You Buy Them Now?

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By Rich Duprey Published
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President Trump’s Stock Bets Have Crushed the Market. Should You Buy Them Now?

© Win McNamee / Getty Images

The Trump administration took the historic step of directly investing U.S. government funds into four publicly traded companies in 2025 to advance national security interests in critical sectors like semiconductors and minerals. These equity stakes — totaling over $10 billion — aimed to bolster domestic supply chains amid tensions with China. 

The investments include a 15% stake in MP Materials (NYSE:MP) for $400 million, a 9.9% stake in Intel (NASDAQ:INTC) for $8.9 billion, a 5% stake in Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) plus a 5% position in its Thacker Pass joint venture, and a 10% stake in Trilogy Metals (NYSEAMERICAN:TMQ) for $35.6 million. 

Additionally, the government secured a non-economic golden share in United States Steel in June in exchange for approving its acquisition by Japan’s Nippon Steel. It was also granted veto rights over key decisions, although it has no financial ownership. 

The government’s approach marks a shift from subsidies or policy encouragement to ownership, prioritizing U.S. production in strategic areas.

Stock Purchase Price Performance 2025 Performance Year-to-Date Cumulative Return S&P 500 Cumulative Return
MP Materials $30.03 68.4% 22.7% 106.5% 11.2%
Intel $20.47 80.3% 23.4% 122.6 7.7%
Lithium Americas $3.30 32.1% 23.6% 63.6% 4.6%
Trilogy Metals $2.17 98.6% 20.0% 38.2% 3.7%

MP Materials Dominates Rare Earth Rally

MP Materials received a $400 million investment on July 10 for a 15% stake including warrants, funding magnet production at its Mountain Pass facility. The stock, acquired around $30 per share, generated a 68.4% return for the government in 2025, and a 22.7% return year-to-date, for a cumulative return of 106.5%. The gains reflect efforts to counter China’s 90% supply dominance in rare earths used for defense and electric vehicles.

MP Materials is still considered a buy, driven by trade tensions and a potential boost to EBITDA growth because of tariffs. Analysts have a $79 per share price target, suggesting 27% upside potential still, though recent volatility warrants keeping an eye on it.

Intel’s Government Backing Fuels Chip Revival

Intel saw the government acquire 433.3 million shares at $20.47 each on August 22, 2025, as part of converting CHIPS Act and defense grants into equity. The stock closed 2025 at $36.90 per share, representing an 80.3% gain from the purchase price. So far in 2026, Intel is up over 23% and is cumulatively 122.6% higher. In comparison, the S&P 500 has a return of just 7.7% from the time of the Intel purchase. 

This performance stems from the chipmaker’s role in funding U.S. chip fabrication to reduce foreign reliance. Intel remains a potential buy for long-term investors due to its forward price-to-earnings ratio of 54 and partnerships with Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA), Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), and SoftBank, all of which have invested billions in its processes. 

However, government involvement may limit its agility, so short-term traders should consider waiting for a price dip before entering.

Lithium Americas’ Steady Climb in Battery Minerals

The government took a 5% stake in Lithium Americas and its Thacker Pass joint venture on Sept. 23 through no-cost warrants linked to a $2.26 billion Energy Dept. loan. Purchased at approximately $3.30 per share, the stock ended 2025 at $4.36 per share, up 32.1%. So far this year, Lithium Americas is up 23.6% for a cumulative return of 63.6%. The investment supports Nevada’s lithium mine, set for 2027 production, holding 20% of U.S. reserves.

Lithium Americas is a cautious buy, with funding ensuring project progress, but its price-to-book ratio of 1.7 indicates it is undervalued. Investors, though, should wait for lithium price recovery, as market conditions remain key.

Trilogy Metals’ High-Risk/Reward in Copper

Trilogy Metals secured a $35.6 million Defense Dept. investment on October 6 for a 10% stake through 8.2 million units at $2.17 per share. From there, it closed 2025 at $4.31, a 98.6% rise, and is $5.17 per share today, for a 138.2% gain overall. The funds advance its Alaska Ambler project for copper and zinc in green tech.

Trilogy Metals only suits risk-tolerant speculators, given that it has no revenue, produces ongoing losses, and suffers from permitting delays. BMO Capital Markets downgraded it to Market Perform with a $5.50 target in October after the deal, signaling its belief that Trilogy has limited near-term potential.

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