BMO Slashes Lithium Americas Target to $4.50 as Thacker Pass CapEx Inflation Hits 15%

Lithium Americas (NYSE:LAC) has now shed more than 16% year-to-date, trading around $3.97 as of March 24. The stock is well off its 52-week high of $10.52, though it has gained more than 33% over the trailing year from a low base.

The Street’s consensus target sits at $6.38, with nine of twelve analysts rating the stock a Hold. Against that backdrop, BMO Capital cut its price target to $4.50 while maintaining a Market Perform rating. BMO’s revised target of $4.50 sits just above the current trading price.

BMO’s $4.50 LAC Prediction

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BMO Capital reduced its target from $6 to $4.50, citing two pressures: higher capex inflation at Thacker Pass, now 15% versus 10% previously, and ongoing dilution from at-the-market equity issuance. The revised target sits just above the current price, reflecting BMO’s cautious stance rather than a recovery thesis. The Market Perform rating signals limited near-term upside relative to the risks of a multi-billion-dollar construction project still two years from mechanical completion.

Key Drivers of LAC Stock Performance

1. Thacker Pass construction progress: Phase 1 engineering is 93% complete, with approximately 950 workers on site scaling toward a peak of 1,800 by late 2026. Mechanical completion is targeted for late 2027, with Phase 1 designed to produce 40,000 tonnes per year of battery-quality lithium carbonate.
2. DOE loan facility and funding visibility: Lithium Americas has drawn $435 million in October 2025 and an additional $432 million in February 2026 from its $2.23 billion DOE loan facility. With $905.6 million in cash on hand, the company has meaningful runway, though a 2026 capex range of $1.3 billion to $1.6 billion will consume it rapidly.
3. Strategic partnerships reducing execution risk: General Motors holds a 38% joint venture interest in Thacker Pass and contributed $100 million at final investment decision. Orion Resource Partners added $220 million, and Orion converted $97.5 million in convertible notes to equity. These partnerships validate the project’s importance to domestic battery supply chains.

What Will It Take for Lithium Americas (LAC) to Reach $4.50?

With 347.37 million shares outstanding, reaching $4.50 would imply a market capitalization meaningfully above the current $1.37 billion. The conditions are straightforward but demanding: construction must stay on schedule without further cost escalation beyond BMO’s revised 15% inflation assumption; ATM equity issuance must moderate so dilution does not outpace project value creation; and lithium prices must stabilize or recover to support forward revenue assumptions. The company’s total capex estimate stands at $2.93 billion, making execution discipline over the next 18 months non-negotiable.

The primary risk is tariff exposure on equipment sourced from Canada, China, and other jurisdictions, which could push the already-elevated capex estimate higher and compress any valuation recovery. Even so, BMO’s revised target reflects a project that is funded, advancing, and strategically anchored by government and institutional partners. BMO’s revised target of $4.50 reflects a project that is funded, advancing, and strategically anchored by government and institutional partners.

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