Applied Materials (NASDAQ: AMAT | AMAT Price Prediction), ASML (NASDAQ: ASML), KLA (NASDAQ: KLAC), and Lam Research (NASDAQ: LRCX) have all retreated sharply in recent weeks. So which one should a retirement-focused investor buy right now?
All four are semiconductor equipment leaders riding the AI infrastructure buildout. They have pulled back, but the magnitude of each dip differs, the risk profiles vary, and the reward profiles diverge sharply once you look past the industry label.
Growth Trajectory
On pure revenue momentum, Lam Research is the standout. Revenue hit $5.34 billion in the December 2025 quarter, up 22.1% year-over-year, with Q3 FY2026 guidance of $5.70 billion pointing to continued acceleration. ASML delivered full-year 2025 revenue of €32.7 billion (approx. $35.5 billion), up 15.6%, with a record Q4 backlog of €38.8 billion (approx. $42.1 billion) locking in future demand. KLA posted record quarterly revenue of $3.30 billion, up 7.2% year-over-year. Applied Materials is the laggard: Q1 FY2026 revenue of $7.01 billion was down 2.1% year-over-year, and operating income fell 15.8% in the same period.
Lam Research wins here, while Applied Materials finishes last.
China Risk
This is where Lam’s growth story gets complicated. China represented 35% of its Q2 FY2026 revenue — and peaked at 43% just one quarter earlier in Q1 FY2026. That is the highest China concentration of the four companies. Applied Materials sits at approximately 30% of revenue from China. ASML reported $11.06 billion in China revenue for full-year 2025, roughly 29% of total, but ASML’s own management flagged that “China customer demand, and therefore our China total net sales in 2026, [are expected] to decline significantly.” KLA carries China exposure too, but Barclays specifically upgraded KLA to Overweight citing insulation from China export control headwinds. That is a meaningful distinction.
For retirement investors who cannot afford asymmetric drawdowns from a single geopolitical shock, Lam Research’s China dependency is a structural liability at current prices. KLA wins this dimension on relative safety.
Valuation and Moat
ASML trades at a forward P/E of 48.1, the richest multiple of the four. That premium reflects something no competitor can replicate: ASML is the sole manufacturer of EUV lithography systems, and its 2030 revenue target of €44 billion to €60 billion is backstopped by a captive customer base. KLA’s forward P/E of 34.2 looks more attractive given its 41.3% operating margin and 16 consecutive annual dividend increases. Applied Material’s forward P/E of 31.6 prices in a recovery that revenue trends have yet to confirm. Lam’s forward P/E of 38.1 carries the most China-discount risk of the group.
On moat quality per valuation dollar, KLA edges out the field for the risk-conscious buyer.
The Verdict
ASML is the right answer for the long-term retirement investor who wants a monopoly-grade compounder and can stomach a 14% pullback from its 52-week high on the way to a decade-scale position. The EUV monopoly, the $45 billion backlog, and the 2030 roadmap make it the most durable of the four.
KLA is the right answer for the retirement investor who wants income, margin quality, and lower geopolitical risk right now. KLA returned $797.4 million to shareholders in a single quarter, its process control leadership is deepening, and Barclays’ upgrade specifically cites its relative insulation from the China export control risk that clouds the other three.
Lam’s growth is real, but 35% China revenue concentration at a trailing P/E of 47.84 makes it a poor fit for a retirement portfolio. Applied Materials needs to show revenue growth before the valuation case closes.
For retirees buying this dip today: ASML for the long hold, KLA for the income and stability.
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