DraftKings Price Prediction: Where The Stock Is Going This Year

DraftKings (NASDAQ:DKNG | DKNG Price Prediction) trades at $23.94 as of writing, sitting 26% below its 52-week high and down 30.53% year-to-date. Our 24/7 Wall St. price target for DraftKings is $24.13, implying a modest 0.79% upside from current levels.

Our recommendation is hold, with a confidence level of 90%. The stock is close to fair value, but execution risk on the new Predictions platform and margin pressure from state tax increases create meaningful uncertainty around that target.

Our price target reflects a business that has matured significantly but faces a transitional 2026 as it invests heavily in a new product category. That tension between proven profitability and speculative reinvestment is exactly what the current valuation captures.

A Sharp Slide After a Record Quarter

DraftKings posted a remarkable fourth quarter, with revenue of $1.989 billion, up 42.82% year-over-year, and adjusted diluted EPS of $0.36 against a consensus estimate of $0.18, a 100% beat. Adjusted EBITDA reached $343.2 million, nearly four times the prior year. Full-year 2025 marked DraftKings’ first full-year GAAP profit in company history.

Despite those milestones, the stock fell sharply after the report. Shares are down 24.93% over the past year and off 4.85% over the past month, though an 8.03% gain over the past week.

The market’s concern centers on FY2026 revenue guidance of $6.5 billion to $6.9 billion, which implies meaningful deceleration from 2025’s 26.99% revenue growth, alongside heavy investment in the Predictions platform excluded from revenue guidance entirely.

The Bull Case

The bull case rests on DraftKings Predictions becoming a genuine second revenue engine. CEO Jason Robins called it “the most exciting new growth opportunity we have seen since PASPA was struck down in 2018,” targeting “hundreds of millions in annual revenue” in the years ahead from a $10 billion addressable market.

Critically, 2026 guidance includes no revenue from Predictions, meaning any traction represents pure upside. On Super Bowl Sunday alone, DraftKings Predictions recorded three times its prior record for daily trading volume. The core sportsbook business shows structural improvement, with the NFL season hold reaching 16% and parlay handle mix rising nearly 500 basis points in Q4.

The analyst community is firmly bullish, with 27 Buy ratings, 8 Hold ratings, and zero Sell ratings, and a consensus target of $36.13. The bull case scenario reaches $46.91 by April 2027 if Predictions gains traction and sportsbook margins hold.

What Could Go Wrong

The bear case centers on investment overhang and execution risk. DraftKings is guiding to adjusted EBITDA of $700 million to $900 million in 2026 while spending aggressively on Predictions customer acquisition.

Sport outcome volatility remains a structural wildcard: Q3 2025 sportsbook revenue fell 9.3% year-over-year purely due to customer-friendly outcomes, compressing the net revenue margin to 5.2%.

State gaming tax increases in New Jersey, Louisiana, and Illinois add margin pressure.  The bear case scenario puts the stock at $22.42 by April 2027.

Hold for Now, Watch Predictions Closely

The 24/7 Wall St. price target of $24.13 reflects a stock that has largely priced in core business strength and is now in a “show me” phase on Predictions. The 90% confidence in a hold reflects low near-term upside on the base case, reflecting confidence in the long-term business.

Turn more constructive if Predictions revenue begins appearing in quarterly results and the CFTC provides regulatory clarity. Grow cautious if state tax increases accelerate or Predictions investment spending outpaces early traction metrics.

These projections assume DraftKings successfully monetizes Predictions, continues structural sportsbook margin improvement, and benefits from iGaming legalization in additional states.