Live: Will Upstart Smash Earnings Today?
Key Points
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Upstart reports after the bell, here are the key figures Wall Street expects from the quarter:
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Revenue: $225.4 million
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EPS (Non-GAAP): $0.25
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- Management cited no material macro drag in Q1 and highlighted a $500 million AT-the-market shelf and Fortress capital commitment for funding flexibility.
- Q1 contribution margin of 55 % slipped 200 bp Y/Y on lower take-rates; investors will watch if fee mix or net-interest income can re-lift margins.
- Consensus models call for $225.4 million in Q2 revenue, with net interest income of $15 million underpinning fee-driven growth.
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Final Reaction
| Metric | Pre | Post | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Capex | $1.75B | $1.2B | 📉 Bearish |
| Margin | –30% | –32% | 📉 Bearish |
What is holding the stock back after earnings.
| Takeaway | Sentiment |
|---|---|
| Beat on both lines | Bullish |
| Capex cut raises growth pace questions | Bearish |
| Margins still deeply negative | Bearish |
| Stock decline shows execution bar is rising | Bearish |
What Changes This Past Quarter
| Metric | Q2 2025 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|
| Loans Originated | 372,599 | +159% |
| Volume | $2.82B | +154% |
| Conversion Rate | 23.9% | +770bps |
| Adj. EBITDA | $53.1M | +ve swing |
| Adj. EPS | $0.36 | Swing to + |
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Return to GAAP profitability
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Loan volume surge
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No leverage on contribution margin
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Heavy Fortress reliance still a concern
Commentary and Guidance Update
“We reached GAAP profitability a quarter sooner than expected…”
— Dave Girouard, CEO
What it means: Solid execution, but market is skeptical on long-term margin expansion.
Guidance Update
| Metric | Guide | Consensus | Signal |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q3 Revenue | $280M | ~$270M | 📈 Raised |
| Contribution Margin | 58% | 58% | ⚖️ Flat |
Upstart Down After Earnings, Despite a Beat
| Metric | Consensus | Actual | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue | $225.4M | $257.3M | ✅ Beat |
| EPS (Adj.) | $0.25 | $0.36 (Non-GAAP) | ✅ Beat |
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After-hours price move: Shares of UPST are down 12.85% as investors digest guidance and margin details.
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Guidance vs. Consensus: Q3 revenue guide of $280M was Raised vs. the $270–275M consensus. However, macro and funding mix concerns appear to be weighing on sentiment.
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Analyst take: Despite a clean beat on both lines, investors are punishing the stock due to expectations of higher funding costs, reliance on Fortress, and a modest contribution margin guide that suggests operating leverage could flatten.
CEO Outlook
“We expect Q2 revenue of $225 million, with $210 million in fees and $15 million of net interest income driving a contribution margin north of 55 %.”
Dave Girouard, CEO
This formula underpins Upstart’s profit model; tonight’s mix vs. guide will tell us if margins can hold in a rising-rate environment.
“Our Fortress partnership and $500 million ATM shelf lock in funding costs and give us the flexibility to expand loan volume with minimal risk.”
Dave Girouard, CEO
Funding stability is critical for growth—look for any commentary on execution of that capital plan and its impact on volume guidance.
How Upstart Performed After Recent Earnings
Upstart’s outsized surprises have generally led to strong multi-week rallies—particularly after Q2 and Q3—but the Q4 pop faded by two weeks, and the most recent beat saw only modest follow-through.
| Quarter | EPS Surprise | 1-Day Move | 7-Day Move | 14-Day Move |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q2 FY 2024 | +56.70 % | +39.51 % | +53.29 % | +80.77 % |
| Q3 FY 2024 | +59.07 % | +6.68 % | +33.18 % | +57.15 % |
| Q4 FY 2024 | +750.16 % | +31.82 % | +6.58 % | –12.00 % |
| Q1 FY 2025 | +75.89 % | –1.59 % | –0.96 % | –2.59 % |
Upstart (Nasdaq: UPST) reports Q2 earnings immediately after the market closes today. After delivering Q1 revenue of $213 million (+67 % Y/Y) and a $0.30 adj. EPS beat—driven by $28 million net interest income above expectations—investors will assess whether rising loan volume and funding-cost dynamics can sustain growth and margins amid evolving macro risks. The Q2 guide and commentary on consumer credit trends will be pivotal.
We’ll be updating this live blog with news and analysis right after Upstart’s earnings hit the newswires. To receive updates, all you have to do is leave this page open, and updates will post automatically.
What to Expect – Estimates
Consensus (Yahoo Finance)
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Revenue: $225.4 million
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EPS (Non-GAAP): $0.25
Full-Year FY 2025
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FY 2025 Revenue: $1.01 billion
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FY 2025 EPS: $1.49
These imply ~58 % Y/Y revenue growth and a swing from a $0.20 loss to $1.49 EPS.
Key Areas to Watch
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Q2 Guidance & Macro Outlook
Management expects Q2 revenue ~$225 million (fees $210 million; net interest income $15 million), with contribution margin ~55 %; any deviation will signal macro-driven credit performance changes. -
Funding-Cost Dynamics
With AT-the-market capacity of $500 million and Fortress now financing >50 % of originations, investors will listen for funding-cost guidance and mix shifts across capital partners. -
Credit-Performance Trends
Q1 saw net charge-offs stabilize; commentary on delinquency trends in subprime and near-prime cohorts will be scrutinized for forward-looking risk signals. -
Margin Leverage vs. Volume Growth
Q1 contribution margin dipped 200 bp due to lower take-rates; investors will watch if volume growth (241k loans in Q1) can offset margin pressure and drive operating leverage. -
Capital Return & Buybacks
Any update to share-repurchase programs or dividend intent will be read as a signal of balance-sheet confidence and free-cash-flow trajectory.
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