XRP Price Prediction: XRP Rallies 6% to $1.40 — Can It Finally Break $1.45?

XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) has finally broken out of the tight range it’s been stuck in for weeks, climbing 6% to reach $1.40. The move comes after a string of bullish developments for Ripple, including Japan’s Rakuten adding XRP as a payment method for 44 million users, the new Kyobo Life insurance partnership in Korea, and accelerating XRP ETF inflows that hit $17.6 million on Wednesday.

But anyone who’s watched XRP this year knows the $1.45 resistance is the most critical. XRP even broke through it briefly in March after the SEC and CFTC classified it as a digital commodity, peaking near $1.60 before sliding back below $1.45 afterwards. So is this rally different, and can XRP finally break $1.45 with conviction this time around?

Three Catalysts Behind XRP’s 6% Rally to $1.40

Every XRP rally this year has needed a reason, and the one happening right now has three. The first one is Ripple announcing its first major partnership with a Korean insurance institution on April 15, teaming up with Kyobo Life to pilot Korea’s first tokenized government bond settlement on blockchain. The deal runs on Ripple Custody and also sets up stablecoin-powered payment rails for later.

On top of that, Japan’s Rakuten Wallet added XRP as both a listed asset and a payment method on April 15, giving 44 million users direct access to spend XRP at over 5 million merchant locations across Japan. Users can also convert Rakuten Points—the most-used loyalty system in Japan, with roughly $23 billion in circulation—directly into XRP. It’s the largest consumer-scale integration XRP has ever had, connecting Ripple’s token to everyday commerce at a scale no exchange listing or ETF launch has delivered.

Then there’s the institutional money flowing back into XRP products. XRP ETF inflows have suddenly come back to life after weeks of near-zero flows, with the funds pulling in $1.46 million on Monday, $11.2 million on Tuesday, and $17.6 million on Wednesday — the biggest daily inflow since February 6 and the first three-day streak of inflows since early March. Whale accumulation on-chain has hit a 10-month high over the same period, showing the bigger holders are buying spot alongside the ETFs.

Moreover, there’s the SEC roundtable happening today led by Commissioners Hester Peirce and Mark Uyeda. The roundtable is officially focused on options market structure, but XRP holders are watching it as a lead-in to the CLARITY Act markup the Senate Banking Committee is targeting for late April.

Why $1.45 Keeps Rejecting Every XRP Rally

The hardest part about being an XRP holder this year has been watching the price climb toward $1.45 over and over again, only to get rejected each time. And the reason comes down to the amount of XRP bought at that level. 

Around 36.8 billion XRP, roughly 60% of the total circulating supply, s held at a cost basis of $1.44, per Glassnode data. That’s millions of wallets sitting on losses for months, waiting for the first chance to break even and exit. So every time XRP pushes toward that level, they sell into it and the rally stalls.

We saw exactly this play out in March, when the SEC and CFTC jointly classified XRP as a digital commodity on March 17, and XRP spiked to $1.60 on the news. But the Fed held rates the following day, and the price fell back below $1.45 within the same week. So, even the biggest regulatory win XRP has ever had couldn’t beat the wall of breakeven sellers.

What Would It Take for XRP to Finally Break Past $1.45?

For XRP to actually break $1.45 and hold above it, the CLARITY Act has to pass committee, Bitcoin has to hold above $75,000, and buying volume has to stay elevated long enough to break through the wall of breakeven sellers. Each rally this year has failed because only one or two of those things showed up at any time.

The CLARITY Act is the biggest of the three because it’s what finally brings banks and institutions into the XRP market. The bill would classify XRP as a digital commodity under federal law, and the Senate Banking Committee is targeting a markup in late April. Should it clear committee, XRP’s institutional adoption would surge as it attains permanent regulatory clarity. 

The second catalyst is Bitcoin breaking key resistance levels too, as altcoins rarely move when BTC is stuck. XRP has moved in the same direction as Bitcoin for every major swing this year, and Bitcoin is currently hovering around $74,000. If BTC breaks and hold above $75,000 with conviction, it would drag the altcoin market higher with it.

Lastly, XRP ETF inflows and whale accumulation have started picking up again after weeks of weak flows. But one strong week of buying doesn’t absorb the selling pressure from holders who have been underwater for months. So, the inflows need to stay steady and consistent for weeks—which loops right back to why the CLARITY Act is the single event that can make large capital commit to XRP products.

XRP Price Prediction: Will XRP Finally Break $1.45 With Conviction?

XRP will probably test $1.45 this week, but breaking through with real conviction depends on the CLARITY Act markup being scheduled before the end of April. Without that, the rally will likely stall at the same wall of breakeven sellers that has stopped every other attempt so far.

Then there’s the Iran ceasefire, which expires on April 22 and gives XRP roughly five trading days to break $1.45 before macro pressure returns. If the war escalates and oil prices spike above $110 again, the whole crypto market could plunge again regardless of what the SEC or the Senate does.

So the real window to clear $1.45 with conviction is this week and early next week—before the ceasefire deadline. That’s what XRP holders should actually be watching right now.