Live: Will Netflix Beat Q1 Earnings After the Bell Tonight?

Updates will slow down a bit on this live blog until Netflix hosts their ‘Video Interview.’

Once that starts at 4:45 p.m. ET, we’ll post the most important information you need to know.

If you want to keep receiving updates, simply leave this live blog open, and they’ll post automatically. 

Instead of a conference call, Netflix hosts a ‘video interview.’ That’s expected to go live at 4:45 p.m. ET.

We would expect Netflix shares to open negatively tomorrow. After all, the stock is down 9%.

Yet, if there’s one event remaining that could do the most to shift perception of these quarterly earnings, its the video interview.

Netflix grew revenue 16.2% last quarter, but its revenue guide implies a drop to 13.5% growth.

Does that mean Netflix’s growth is decelerating?

Well, as we noted earlier, Netflix’s forecast is likely the reason shares are down so much after-hours. However, it is worth noting that Netflix historically is fairly conservative with their guides.

Another factor to keep in mind, many Wall Street banks have modeled stronger growth in the second half of the year.

This is all to say, if you’re bullish on Netflix long-term, tonight’s pullback could present an opportunity to add to the company in the days ahead if this sell-off continues. ‘Weakness’ in Q2 could lead to a stronger second half of the year.

One of the most important areas investors are watching each quarter is what Netflix has to say about its live programming plans. Here’s what Netflix said in its shareholder letter about recent live events:

“Live event programming is another example of how certain programming can deliver outsized impact. In Q1, we aired more than 70 live events, including our first regional live event with the World Baseball Classic, exclusively for our members in Japan. This massive event delivered 31.4M viewers, becoming 3 our most-watched program ever on Netflix in Japan, and sparked our largest day of sign ups in the country. As a result, among the 190+ countries in which we operate, Japan was the largest contributor to member growth in Q1. Additionally, our March 21st live airing of BTS The Comeback Live delivered 18.4M global viewers , reached the weekly Top 10 in 80 countries and secured the #1 spot in 24 4 countries. We’ll further build out our live events later this year with the long-awaited heavyweight fight in the UK between Tyson Fury and Anthony Joshua.”

I’ve bolded the segment that’s the most interesting, which is that broadcasting WBC matches in Japan propelled the country to being the largest contributor to member growth. That metric shows the potential for member growth from adding more sports across the world.

Netflix shares are now down more than 9% after reporting Q1 earnings.

In our last update, we noted EPS guidance is $.78 versus expectations of $.84.

That EPS guidance miss is partially caused by revenue guidance coming in below expectations.

However, the company is also guiding toward a lower operating margin than Wall Street expected. That margin erosion is likely weighing on shares after-hours.

Keep in mind as well that Netflix shares had rallied more than 40% since February 12th, so tonight’s sell-off is likely taking some money off the table after the stock’s rapid rise. 

Netflix reported earnings tonight and shares are down 7%. We’re digging into the reasons and guidance stands out to us.

The company guided to $.78 in EPS next quarter, Wall Street was expecting $.84. That’s a big miss. In addition, revenue guidance of $12.57 is below expectations.

So, the big number to watch is Netflix’s forward guidance is broadly disappointing and likely is the key reason shares are falling. 

Netflix’s earnings included the fact Reed Hastings will not seek re-election to the board. That’s big news since he was responsible for Netflix’s strongest growth in the early 2000s and is an iconic executive.

Netflix shares are plummeting, which might confuse some investors who see their EPS of $1.23 beat expectations of $.76 to $.79.

Once again, this EPS number includes a large one-time payment that will need to be excluded.

Wall Street doesn’t like Netflix’s earnings at first, shares are down 8% immedaitely. We’ll continue posting analysis on this quarter’s earnings.

The market has closed and Netflix earnings are out. Here are the key numbers:

• EPS: $1.23
• Revenue: $12.25 billion

As a reminder, here’s what Wall Street was expecting:

• EPS: $.79
• Revenue:$12.18 billion

As a reminder, these earnings include a one-time payment. We’ll work to remove the impacts from this payment and analyze the Street’s reaction in coming updates. 

Netflix earnings are due any minute after the closing bell.

Keep in mind, we expect their GAAP earnings number to be elevated due to a $2.8 billion breakup fee payment. Watch for their earnings that exclude this number.

We will post analysis on their earnings and why the stock is rising or falling. 

We’re a little more than 15 minutes away from the closing bell. We expect Netflix earnings to release very quickly after the market closes.

Once earnings are released, we’ll begin posting information from the earnings and live analysis. All you have to do to receive them is stay on this page, and they should load automatically. 

We expect to issue 10 or more updates within 30 minutes after Netflix reports. Once again, these updates will come from Eric Bleeker. He’s followed Netflix for more than 15 years, including his time leading The Motley Fool’s Telecom and Technology coverage.

In addition, he hosts 24/7 Wall St.’s AI Investor Podcast. Recommendations from the show have averaged 125% across the past 18 months. So, you’re getting updates from someone with plenty of experience in the technology and entertainment space.

Prediction markets are betting Netflix will beat earnings tonight. Polymarket’s market on Netflix earnings has 96% odds the company will beat GAPP EPS of $.76.

As we noted earlier, Wall Street expects the company to report higher GAAP earnings tonight, partially driven by gains received from the Warner Bros. breakup. So any analysis on tonight’s earnings will start with an ‘adjusted’ number that removes the impact of these one-time gains.

So, we wouldn’t look too much into what prediction markets based on GAAP earnings say about Netflix’s earnings tonight.

In late trading, Netflix shares are up .5% today.