Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) just broke $78,000 after Iran declared the Strait of Hormuz fully open for all commercial ships. Oil prices crashed 11% to $85.90 per barrel—its lowest since the war started—and BTC hit its highest price since before the conflict began in late February.
The strait carries roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply, and keeping it shut is what kept oil above $100 and crypto under pressure for over seven weeks. With oil now below $90 and the FOMC meeting just 11 days away, is $80,000 a realistic price target for Bitcoin?
Why Oil Crashing Below $90 Changes Everything for Bitcoin
Oil has been holding Bitcoin and the whole crypto market back since the war started in late February. With the Strait of Hormuz fully shut following the war, crude prices shot above $100 and stayed there for over six weeks, pushing inflation higher.
March’s CPI came in at 3.3%, almost entirely driven by energy costs, giving the Fed no room to cut rates. With rates staying high and no cuts expected before December, nobody was putting money into risk assets, and BTC went nowhere.
But now, oil prices dropping to $85.90 changes all of that. The March inflation spike was overwhelmingly energy-driven, and core CPI—the number the Fed actually watches—came in at just 2.6%, below what economists expected. If oil price stays below $90, the April and May inflation readings should come in significantly lower, and the Fed will walk into its April 28-29 meeting with a much weaker inflation case than it had in March.
We’re not saying rate cuts are coming next week. But going from $100+ oil prices and no cuts in 2026 to an $85 oil price and maybe one cut before year-end is a big shift—and that’s what moves Bitcoin. BTC has traded with roughly 85% correlation to the Nasdaq during oil spikes this year, and when the pressure comes off, crypto is one of the first places money flows back into. That’s what today’s $78,000 move is pricing in the new development.
Can Bitcoin Reach $80,000 From Here?
Bitcoin hasn’t traded above $78,000 since before the war started, so breaking through it is a big deal on its own. But the buying behind this move is what really stands out. The Coinbase Premium Index—which tracks whether U.S. spot buyers are paying more than the global average—just hit its highest level since October 2025. That’s not a short squeeze or leveraged traders getting lucky, but a real spot demand from U.S. buyers showing up for the first time in months.
Moreover, over $1 billion in short positions were stacked above $77,000 heading into today, and they’re getting liquidated as the price pushes through. When shorts get forced out, they have to buy BTC to close their positions, which adds fuel to the rally on top of the organic buying. Volume across exchanges hit $53.7 billion today, up 32% from the recent average, which confirms this move has broader participation than the ceasefire rallies we saw earlier this month.
If BTC holds above $78,000 over the next few sessions, $80,000 is the next target—it’s a round psychological level and the market tends to gravitate toward those once a rally gets going. Above $80,000, $82,500 is where BTC would confirm the downtrend is over, and the next major technical target after that is $85,000.
We think $80,000 is realistic within the next week or two if oil stays below $90—but holding it depends on whether the Hormuz reopening actually lasts.
The Risk That Could Send Bitcoin Back Below $75,000
If you’ve been following the war since February, you’ve probably noticed a de-escalation pattern and market pump. The April 7 ceasefire sent BTC from $68,000 to $75,000, then the Islamabad peace talks collapsed on April 12 and Bitcoin dropped to $70,000 within 48 hours. So, it plays out in such a way that the market rallies on any news the war is cooling, but then fades when the war escalates.
Today’s Hormuz reopening has the same problem. Iran declared the strait open for the remaining period of ceasefire, which is tied to a 10-day truce between Israel and Lebanon. Should the truce expire without an extension, Iran could close the strait again and oil will spike back above $100. Trump has also made it clear that the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports stays in place until a full peace deal is signed, so this is far from over.
However, today’s setup is stronger than April 7 in a few important ways. Over 40 countries are meeting in Paris to plan a joint mission to keep the strait open. So, that’s a new development that hasn’t happened once since the war started.
Moreover, the Israel and Lebanon ceasefire is a separate deal that gives the U.S. and Iran talks more breathing room. And oil at $85.90 is well below the $95 it hit on April 7, showing that the market clearly thinks this time is different.
Is $80,000 Bitcoin Coming This Month?
$80,000 is realistic before the end of April if oil prices stay below $90. The Hormuz reopening removes the one thing that’s been holding Bitcoin back since the war started, and for the first time in seven weeks the macro is actually working in BTC’s favour rather than against it. The FOMC meets on April 28-29, and the Fed will be looking at an $85 oil price instead of $100.
So, it all comes down to whether the strait stays open beyond the ceasefire timeline. The key thing to watch is the Israel and Lebanon ceasefire and Trump’s next move on the Iran blockade. Should everything get resolved and macro conditions stabilize, Bitcoin would have a real shot at hitting $80K and scaling above it before April ends.
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