Intel’s Latest Surge Just Made History. But That Doesn’t Automatically Make It a ‘Sell’

Yesterday, I flagged Intel‘s (NASDAQ:INTC | INTC Price Prediction) first-anniversary print under CEO Lip-Bu Tan as the moment the turnaround thesis would either harden or crack. It hardened. Shares have ripped to their highest level in nearly two years, with INTC trading around $83.37 at the time of writing, representing a more than 24% gain over the past week and nearly 112% year-to-date gain.

The kneejerk “take profits” chorus is loud. I’m not joining it, and neither should you.

Beat on EPS, Beat on Tone, Beat on Supply

The numbers I was watching all came in hot. Q1 revenue hit $13.6 billion, up 7% year-over-year and $1.4 billion above the midpoint of guidance. Non-GAAP EPS of $0.29 blew past breakeven guidance. Non-GAAP gross margin landed at 41%, roughly 650 basis points ahead of guide. Crucially, AI-driven businesses now represent 60% of revenue and grew 40% year-over-year, and Q2 guidance of $13.8 to $14.8 billion reinforces that 2026 server CPU capacity is effectively sold out.

Tan Leans Into the “Paranoid” Reset

Tan reframed the entire narrative, saying “A year ago, the conversation about Intel was about whether we could survive. Today, it is about how quickly we can add manufacturing capacity.” He argued the CPU is “reinserting itself as the indispensable foundation of the AI era” as the orchestration layer. CFO David Zinsner quantified missed demand simply: “it starts with a ‘b.'”

Why I’m Not Calling This a “Sell”

Yes, valuation is stretched. INTC’s forward P/E sits at 161.29 and the analyst consensus target of $74.15 already trails the tape. But insiders sold mostly in the $44 to $49 range, well below today’s print, and Tan himself hasn’t dumped a share.

My focus this week is whether analyst targets reset above $80 and whether the TeraFab and Google LTA momentum carries Q2 supply commentary higher.

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