XRP (CRYPTO: XRP) rallied to $1.50 yesterday, climbing over 7% in a week. The move came on a trading volume spike that pushed the price above the $1.45 resistance. The XRP price is currently hovering around $1.46, slightly above the $1.45 resistance level, which has been rejecting rally attempts since the U.S.-Iran war started in late February.
Polymarket odds of a CLARITY Act passage in 2026 spiked to nearly 80% last week and briefly tagged 90% intraday over the weekend. But the odds have fallen back to 62% as banking trade groups rejected the stablecoin compromise. With the Senate Banking Committee markup three days away, XRP’s next move could depend on what happens on Thursday.
Why CLARITY Act Odds Slid from 79% to 62%
Three weeks ago, Polymarket traders priced CLARITY Act passage at 46%. Then, Senate Banking Chairman Tim Scott put the markup on the calendar for May 14, and the odds shot up to 79%. Over the weekend, the odds briefly tagged 90% intraday before settling back around 75%. But as of Monday, May 11, the odds trade at 62% with a 3% drop in the last 24 hours.
A day after Scott scheduled the markup, five major banking trade groups, including the American Bankers Association and the Bank Policy Institute, formally rejected the Tillis-Alsobrooks stablecoin compromise. Their argument is that the compromise language still lets crypto platforms offer reward programs that mimic deposit interest. The groups went further, warning that yield-earning stablecoins could reduce consumer, small-business, and farm loans “by one-fifth or more.”
Shortly after, Senators Tillis and Lummis pushed back publicly. Tillis posted on X that “some in the banking industry may not want either of these things to happen, and we respectfully agree to disagree.” The bipartisan coalition is holding firm, but the bank rejection still moved markets, and the Polymarket odds dropped 17 points in 48 hours. Even at 62%, the odds lean toward passage, and Kalshi’s rival market at 69% backs the same view.
However, the same uncertainty showing up on Polymarket is keeping XRP’s breakout in check—yesterday’s push above $1.45 stalled at $1.50, with the bears immediately stepping in. With banks reopening the fight three days before the vote, Thursday becomes binary. Either the markup clears the committee and holds the breakout, or it stalls and sends XRP back into the $1.30-$1.45 range it’s spent most of 2026 trapped in.
What the May 14 Senate Banking Markup Decides for XRP
The Senate Banking Committee meets at 10:30 AM EST on Thursday in the Dirksen Senate Office Building for the bill’s markup. Twenty-four senators make up the panel, split 13 Republicans to 11 Democrats, and 13 yes votes would send the bill to the full Senate. That’s the bottleneck that’s blocked the entire CLARITY Act for months.
Tim Scott wants all 13 Republicans on board—what he called “the red zone” in an April Fox Business interview. Senator John Kennedy of Louisiana is holding out, and per Punchbowl News, his hesitation has nothing to do with crypto. He’s frustrated with an unrelated Senate housing bill that’s stalled. So, if Kennedy doesn’t fold by Thursday, Scott needs at least one Democrat to make 13.
Opening statements on Thursday morning will set the tone—Republican hedging means trouble. The amendment count in the first 30 minutes is the next tell. A flurry of strip amendments means banks have peeled off Republican votes. Then there’s the first contested vote margin. A 12-11 or 13-10 keeps the bill on track, while a wider margin, or a banking-aligned amendment passing, means the compromise is unraveling in real time.
That said, a committee passage alone doesn’t make the bill law. The bill shrill needs to move to the full Senate, where 60 votes are needed, and then to reconciliation with the House and the President’s desk. The White House is targeting July 4 for the signing. However, a stall on Thursday would force the bill past the Memorial Day recess that starts May 21, and Senator Lummis warned at Bitcoin 2026 that missing this window could push the bill to 2030.
XRP Price Prediction Based on Thursday’s Vote Outcome
XRP’s price outlook depends on Thursday’s vote outcome.
If Thursday’s Vote Clears Committee
XRP broke above $1.45 on the markup news but stalled at $1.50, where the bears stepped in and pushed the price back toward the breakout level. That zone holds 1.16 billion XRP bought by underwater investors, with $3 billion in sell orders parked above it. Without a fresh catalyst, the breakout could fade back into the $1.30-$1.44 range. So, a clean Thursday vote is the catalyst.
Once the breakout holds, the cup-and-handle pattern forming since the March 10 low at $1.15 points to $1.65-$1.70. The 200-day moving average at $1.80 is above that, and a clean break above $1.80 could see XRP rally above $2. However, XRP hitting $3-$5 by year-end takes more than a committee passage. It needs full Senate passage by July 4, with institutions deploying billions in ETF inflows.
If Thursday’s Vote Stalls
Thursday is the committee’s last realistic shot before Memorial Day recess on May 21, and the full Senate needs roughly two weeks for floor procedure. So, if that window passes, the bill could be shelved until 2030. XRP would lose its biggest catalyst of the year and drop back to the $1.30-$1.44 trading range, with $1.28 as the major support.
So Will the May 14 Vote Break XRP Higher?
The honest take is that XRP could break higher this week. The 62% reading suggests the bigger swing factor isn’t the committee vote, but Bitcoin. Bitcoin breaking above $82,000 and its dominance softening, would favour altcoins, including XRP. XRP’s biggest rallies last year came on Bitcoin strength plus a clear catalyst. And the catalyst this time is the CLARITY Act, which is set for a Thursday markup.
However, the Thursday markup is still conditional. A clean committee vote would confirm the breakout, but a stall could see the price drop back to the $1.30-$1.44 range and delay the bill indefinitely.
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