Every investor eventually faces the same question: when does the certainty of a bond beat the upside of a stock? Evan from the Investing for Beginners Podcast laid out a clean answer, and the math right now is closer than most people realize.
On a recent episode, Evan said, “if I was able to get, you know, 6.5%, 7%, 7.5% off of a bond, that’s creeping pretty dang close to something like an expected market return.” That is the whole thesis in one sentence. When a guaranteed coupon starts approaching what equities have historically delivered, the risk-adjusted choice gets genuinely interesting.
Where yields actually sit today
Treasury yields have continued climbing since this article was first published. As of July 17, 2026, the 30-year Treasury yields 5.06% and the 10-year sits at 4.52%. Investment-grade corporates layer a spread on top of those benchmarks, which is how Evan’s 6.5% to 7.5% scenarios start to materialize for real-money investors.
The inflation backdrop has also shifted meaningfully. June CPI came in at 3.5% year over year, well below May’s 4.2% reading and beneath the consensus forecast of 3.8%. Gasoline prices drove most of the monthly drop, falling 9.7% in June alone. The Fed funds target range remains at 3.50% to 3.75%, but futures markets are now pricing roughly a 53% chance of a rate hike at the September FOMC meeting. Real yields on 30-year TIPS have risen to 2.87%, the highest level since those securities were reintroduced in February 2010, meaning long bonds are now paying genuine purchasing power above inflation, not just nominal offsets.
The certainty premium
SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) has returned 261% over the past 10 years and 27% in the trailing year. Stocks have crushed bonds over that span. The catch is sequence risk. If you need money in five years for a house down payment, an average annual return means nothing when the drawdown shows up in year four. The VIX closed at 18.65 on July 20, a reminder that calm markets carry no permanence guarantee.
Evan’s practical answer is CD laddering. “Put your money into a bunch of different CDs that will mature at different points in the future” so cash becomes available at 1, 3, and 5-year intervals. For any planned purchase with a known date, bonds allow you to “lock in that rate and be absolutely certain what that money is going to mature into at X date.”
Andrew’s 20-year rule
Co-host Andrew Sather’s framework is straightforward: if you need the money within 20 years and are closer to retirement, current yields make fixed income worth serious weight in any comparison against equities. With 30-year TIPS real yields at generational highs and the gap between long Treasuries and historical equity returns narrowing, the math for risk-averse capital is more competitive than it has been in well over a decade.
When to flip the switch
The trigger is personal, not a calendar date. If a bond yield locks in your retirement number without requiring the S&P to cooperate, the math has already done its job. Watch the long end of the curve, watch corporate spreads, and decide whether certainty is worth more than upside for the dollars you cannot afford to lose.
Editor’s note: Treasury yield figures were updated to reflect data through July 2026, including the 30-year at 5.06%, the 10-year at 4.52%, and 30-year TIPS real yields at 2.87%, their highest level since the securities were reintroduced in 2010. The June 2026 CPI reading of 3.5% year over year replaced the earlier April inflation figure, and current Fed rate-hike probabilities and VIX levels were also refreshed.
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