Piper Sandler’s Chief Market Technician Craig Johnson walked onto CNBC’s Morning Call Sheet with a message for anyone planning to trade today’s Trump-Xi headlines: keep your expectations in check. Asked how the recent AI and tech rally sets markets up for the summit, Johnson said, “I think the Trump-Xi meeting is going to be probably not a massive event from my perspective, because I think the expectations are pretty subdued coming into this.”
That framing matters. Subdued expectations remove the priced-in disappointment risk that usually punishes markets after high-profile diplomatic events. Johnson expects modest deals on aircraft and agricultural products, and believes the summit will go smoothly for markets as long as there is no escalation in tariffs and no saber-rattling about Taiwan. CNBC contributor Courtney Gelman added a pattern worth knowing: both sides have an interest in maintaining the status quo, and historically these meetings see exuberance priced in ahead of time, followed by weakness afterward.
The Aircraft And Ag Angle
Boeing (NYSE:BA | BA Price Prediction) is the obvious aircraft proxy. Polymarket traders are pricing 87.5% odds that China announces a Boeing aircraft purchase by May 22, 2026. Shares closed at $236.87, up 8.84% over the past month, with Q1 2026 revenue of $22.22B (+14% YoY) and a record $695B backlog. Plenty of upside is already discounted, but the prediction markets are betting on this being one of the most likely deals.
Deere (NYSE:DE) carries the ag flag. Shares sit at $589.19, up 26.92% year to date. Q1 FY2026 EPS came in at $2.42, beating the $2.10 estimate, though Production & Precision Ag operating profit fell 59% on tariff headwinds. CEO John May has called 2026 “the bottom of the current cycle.” A soybean or corn purchase agreement would be a clean tailwind.
The China-Exposed Tech Trade
NVIDIA (NASDAQ:NVDA) is the most policy-sensitive name on the board. The Q1 FY2027 outlook explicitly excludes any Data Center compute revenue from China, with $4.5B in H20 charges tied to export restrictions. Shares have rallied 17.04% in the past month to $220.78. I recently broke down the series of events that led Trump to invite NVIDIA CEO Jensen Huang on the trip at the last minute.
The Broader Market Picture
The broader market echoes Johnson’s read. The SPDR S&P 500 ETF Trust (NYSEARCA:SPY) is up 8.64% in a month, and the Invesco QQQ Trust (NASDAQ:QQQ) has surged 15.74%. The VIX sits at 18.38, comfortably within the normal range, and the 10-year Treasury yield is anchored at 4.42%. None of that screams hedge.
The bear case is simple. One tariff escalation or a Taiwan reference from either side flips this setup. Gelman’s pattern of post-summit weakness is the reason headline-chasers tend to give back what they grab. Johnson’s framework, available through Piper Sandler research, leans toward fading the noise rather than positioning for fireworks.
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