You May Not Be Able To Travel This Summer, At All

It’s called a “staycation,” and you may be stuck with one. You won’t be alone. According to AAA, roughly 61.6 million people traveled by car more than 50 miles from home over the 2025 Fourth of July holiday period, the highest road-travel volume ever recorded for that holiday. The figures for Memorial Day and Labor Day were not as high, but they were close. This summer, filling that same tank could cost dramatically more than it did a year ago.

Gas Prices Are the First Barrier

By late May 2026, the national average for a gallon of regular gasoline had climbed to $4.56, according to AAA, up more than $1.40 from a year earlier. GasBuddy forecasts the average will hover around $4.80 a gallon between Memorial Day and Labor Day, making this the most volatile summer at the pump in years. For a vehicle with a 15-gallon tank, that extra cost adds up quickly on a long road trip requiring multiple fill-ups. The culprit is the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, which normally carries roughly one-fifth of the world’s oil supply. The U.S.-Israel war with Iran, which began in late February 2026, disrupted global oil markets almost immediately, sending crude above $100 a barrel and gasoline surging more than 50% from pre-war levels.

Lower-income households are bearing the heaviest burden. Bank of America reports that higher gasoline prices are stretching household budgets most severely at the lower end of the income scale. In March 2026, the median lower-income household spent 4.2% of its income on gasoline, up from 3.9% a year earlier.

Air Travel Has Become Both Scarcer and More Expensive

Flying is no longer just a pricier alternative. It has become a shrinking one. Jet fuel prices more than doubled after the conflict in Iran began, and airlines worldwide have responded by slashing capacity. According to aviation analytics firm Cirium, carriers cut 9.3 million seats across the US, Europe, Asia, and other major markets for the period from June 1 through September 30. United Airlines has trimmed its previously planned schedule by about 5% over the next six months. In Europe, Lufthansa cut 20,000 short-haul flights through October. The most dramatic casualty: budget carrier Spirit Airlines permanently ceased operations on May 2, 2026, with its CEO citing “the sudden and sustained rise in fuel prices” as the decisive blow.

The airfare data reflects all of this. The Consumer Price Index showed airline fares were up 20.7% year over year in April 2026. International fares from the US rose 16% in the last week of April compared to the same period in 2025, while domestic US fares jumped 24% in the same period, according to data from travel search firm Kayak. A round trip that cost a few hundred dollars in early 2026 can now be hundreds of dollars more, and the flights themselves may no longer exist on some routes.

Europe Faces Its Own Jet Fuel Problem

Europe is particularly exposed because the continent relies heavily on Middle Eastern jet fuel imports. Over 20% of global seaborne jet fuel supply passed through the Strait of Hormuz last year, with roughly two-thirds of that product destined for Europe. In late April, IEA head Fatih Birol warned that Europe had roughly six weeks of jet fuel reserves remaining. A Goldman Sachs analysis projected that European jet fuel inventories could fall below the IEA’s critical 23-day shortage threshold sometime in June. More recently, some major carriers including Lufthansa and Ryanair have said they secured alternative supply sources and do not expect large-scale cancellations for summer. Still, fuel costs remain far above pre-war levels, and travelers should expect higher fares, fewer short-haul options, and the possibility of last-minute schedule changes.

Inflation Is Squeezing Every Dollar

The BLS CPI report for April showed overall inflation at 3.8% year over year, the highest annual rate since May 2023. Energy prices drove a disproportionate share of that increase, rising 17.9% over the prior 12 months and accounting for more than 40% of the total monthly gain. Gasoline alone was up 28.4% year over year. Airfares added another layer, climbing 20.7% annually.

The report also contained bad news for workers. Real average hourly wages fell 0.5% in April and were down 0.3% on an annual basis, the first annual decline in purchasing power since April 2023. In practical terms, paychecks are not keeping pace with what it costs to drive to work, let alone to go on vacation.

The Wider Economic Risk

Lower travel levels among Americans carry consequences far beyond the travel industry. Consumer spending accounts for roughly 68% of US GDP. When consumers feel financially squeezed, they cut discretionary spending first, and summer travel is among the most discretionary of all categories. That pullback, compounded across millions of households, creates a meaningful drag on the broader economy and raises the risk of a slowdown heading into the second half of the year.

Editor’s note: This article was updated to reflect current gas price figures (national average of $4.56/gallon as of late May 2026), the Spirit Airlines shutdown, a Cirium figure of 9.3 million seats cut globally for the summer travel season, an airfare CPI increase of 20.7% year over year, and BLS data showing real average hourly wages fell 0.3% annually. The original claim of a “54% increase in fuel oil” year over year could not be verified against BLS CPI data and was replaced with the confirmed energy-index 12-month gain of 17.9% and gasoline’s 28.4% annual increase.